Tag: hurricane forecasting

NOAA Deploys New Black Swift Drone into Tropical Storm Tammy

NOAA hurricane researchers successfully deployed a new uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) into Tropical Storm Tammy (2023) to measure parts of the storm too dangerous for humans to go. The Black Swift Technologies S0™ UAS was launched from the NOAA WP-3D Orion Hurricane Hunter aircraft by scientists from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory during missions into the storm as it strengthened and headed closer to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

Read Full Article

AOML Begins Tenth Year of Hurricane Glider Operations

This summer marks AOML’s tenth ­consecutive year of gathering underwater glider observations during the Atlantic hurricane season. The project began in 2014 with two gliders deployed off Puerto Rico to study the ocean’s role in tropical cyclone ­development and intensification. Since then, glider observations have become an ­integral part of the data ­gathered ­annually to improve tropical ­cyclone forecasts, as well as ­better understand how the ocean and ­atmosphere ­interact during the ­passage of tropical ­cyclones.

Read Full Article
The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) “moving nest" Model. Global map showcasing land mass in green and water in black, clouds in white and tropical storms outlined in a green boxes representing the moving nest model.

The Future of Hurricane Forecasting: Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

AOML’s Hurricane Modeling Group was founded in 2007 to advance hurricane forecast models through development and targeted research. From inception, the team has worked to improve NOAA’s hurricane modeling systems; first with the legacy Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (HWRF) model, and now with its transition to the next generation model, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).

Read Full Article
A very active 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: this satellite image shows three tropical storms - Katia, Irma and Jose - churning in the Atlantic at the same time. Image credit: NOAA.

Scientists at AOML Discover Atlantic Niño Fuels the Most Intense and Destructive Tropical Cyclones 

Scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) found that Atlantic Niño, the Atlantic counterpart of the Pacific El Niño, increases the formation of tropical cyclones off the coast of West Africa, also known as Cape (Cabo) Verde hurricanes. The study published in Nature Communications is the first to investigate the links between Atlantic Niño/Niña and seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and the associated physical mechanisms.

Read Full Article
NOAA researchers, pilots, and crew in their blue flight suits stand in front of a NOAA G-IV Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

Five ways NOAA’s research improves hurricane forecasts

Researchers at NOAA seek new techniques to advance hurricane forecasts to better protect life and property. In preparation for the upcoming 2023 hurricane season, which begins June 1, scientists are accelerating the use of small uncrewed aircraft technologies and the collocation of observational ocean assets, among other advancements. Here are five ways that NOAA researchers are improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts:

Read Full Article

Wrapping up the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

November 30th marked the official end to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Scientists and forecasters from across NOAA worked tirelessly throughout the season to conduct critical tropical cyclone research. This year, NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) coordinated the longest series of missions into a single tropical system, arranged multiple observing assets for simultaneous data collection, deployed new sUAS technology, and included a novel “moving nest” to our next-generation hurricane model.

Read Full Article

How do weak, misaligned tropical cyclones evolve towards alignment? A multi-case study using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

The ability to predict whether and when a tropical cyclone will become vertically aligned is critical for intensity change forecasts, as storms can intensify quickly after achieving an aligned structure. A recent study from researchers at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies shows how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones containing different center locations with height, called misalignment, can develop a vertically aligned structure. This study works to improve forecasts of when this alignment might occur by identifying key times of the day and other tropical cyclone characteristics when alignment is likely.

Read Full Article

Investigating vertical wind shear influences on tropical cyclone intensity change

Scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute of Marine & Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) examine the challenges of accurately predicting when a tropical cyclone will begin a quick and sudden increase in intensity (called rapid intensification or RI) in a new study published in Monthly Weather Review.

Read Full Article
The Gulfstream-IV Hurricane Hunter science crew at the Amílcar Cabral International Airport on Sal Island in the eastern Atlantic. Photo credit: NOAA.

First Cabo Verde Missions Explore Earliest Roots of Atlantic Hurricanes

Scientists at AOML deployed to the Cabo Verde islands in August to explore how tropical waves that move off the coast of West African develop into tropical storms and hurricanes. These first-ever missions thousands of miles across the Atlantic mark the farthest distance traveled by NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters to help forecast models better predict the future track and intensity of developing storms.

Read Full Article