Hurricanes are among some of the most destructive natural disasters and pose major risks to coastlines. Given warming oceans, increasing storm intensities, and population growth, advancing hurricane research is vital for tracking storms and predicting their strengths and landfalls. A complex team, from program managers to meteorologists, is essential for successfully predicting, observing, and forecasting […]
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has officially come to an end. Throughout this record-breaking season, NOAA scientists conducted innovative research on tropical cyclones that will improve forecasting accuracy, enhance understanding of storm behavior, and strengthen preparedness efforts for communities. Their work and dedication contributed to a safer and more resilient future for those facing the impacts of extreme weather events.
Hurricane Erin was one of the largest storms recorded in the Atlantic basin, with only around 5% of storms matching or exceeding its size. Both operational and experimental NOAA forecast models for Erin proved incredibly accurate, especially for Erin’s track early in the forecast period. NOAA’s flagship hurricane forecast model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast […]
The Hurricane Research Division (HRD) within NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is a worldwide leader in the advancement of hurricane science and prediction by collecting novel airborne observations, testing new observing technologies, and developing state-of-the-art forecast model systems that optimally ingest these unique datasets. These efforts make hurricane forecasts more accurate, ultimately protecting […]
In recent years, meteorologists have made strides in predicting the trajectory of tropical cyclones as models and forecasts have become more accurate. However, forecasting intensity remains a much larger challenge; small changes in atmospheric conditions can have a large impact on forecasts. To better understand why some forecasts are more accurate, scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic […]
In May 2024, representatives from the Hurricane Modeling Team at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) hosted a Summer Colloquium focused on equipping the next generation of hurricane scientists with a knowledge base of the HAFS model.
