Category: Modeling and Prediction

A photo of three men engaged in a discussion while seated at a curved wooden conference table inside a modern auditorium or meeting room.

Advancing extreme weather forecast models through international collaborations

NOAA–India Partnership Advances Next-Generation Coupled Forecasting System for the Indian Ocean Region A long-standing collaboration between NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has reached a major new milestone with advancements in the Interactive/Indian Ocean–Land–Atmosphere (IOLA) forecasting system. Scientists from NOAA/AOML, the Indian National Center for Ocean Information […]

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Satellite image of Hurricane Erin in the Atlantic during the 2025 hurricane season.

How does El Niño Impact Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA has released their seasonal outlook for the 2026 hurricane season –  spanning from June 1st to November 30th – reporting a 55% probability of a below average season. This prediction is primarily driven by several factors including a strong El Niño event expected to emerge in the Pacific basin. This phenomenon will disrupt typical […]

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New drone data improves hurricane intensity forecasts

For the first time, data from a small uncrewed aircraft system (sUAS) – Black Swift Technologies’ S0 – will be integrated into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model during the 2026 hurricane season. Scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) determined that incorporating sUAS data […]

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Point of view looking over the right wing of a Hurricane Hunter P-3 aircraft as it flies overtop pathcy clouds at sunrise.

Inside the Storm: Meet the NOAA team behind hurricane research

Hurricanes are among some of the most destructive natural disasters and pose major risks to coastlines. Given warming oceans, increasing storm intensities, and population growth, advancing hurricane research is vital for tracking storms and predicting their strengths and landfalls. A complex team, from program managers to meteorologists, is essential for successfully predicting, observing, and forecasting […]

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Satellite image of Hurricane Melissa. 2025

Breaking records in the sky and sea: Innovations in research through the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has officially come to an end. Throughout this record-breaking season, NOAA scientists conducted innovative research on tropical cyclones that will improve forecasting accuracy, enhance understanding of storm behavior, and strengthen preparedness efforts for communities. Their work and dedication contributed to a safer and more resilient future for those facing the impacts of extreme weather events.

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Satellite image of Hurricane Erin in the Atlantic during the 2025 hurricane season.

NOAA’s next-generation hurricane model accurately predicted Hurricane Erin

Hurricane Erin was one of the largest storms recorded in the Atlantic basin, with only around 5% of storms matching or exceeding its size. Both operational and experimental NOAA forecast models for Erin proved incredibly accurate, especially for Erin’s track early in the forecast period.  NOAA’s flagship hurricane forecast model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast […]

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View of the sunset looking out of the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft.

Innovations in hurricane research are advancing hurricane prediction

The Hurricane Research Division (HRD) within NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is a worldwide leader in the advancement of hurricane science and prediction by collecting novel airborne observations, testing new observing technologies, and developing state-of-the-art forecast model systems that optimally ingest these unique datasets. These efforts make hurricane forecasts more accurate, ultimately protecting […]

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Jason Dunion, Ph.D., stands over a P-3 Orion Hurricane Hunter research station in conversation with a fellow meteorologist analyzing data. Both researchers are sporting royal blue Hurricane Hunter flight suits while looking at data on computers and other intstruments.

Early-career meteorologist, Jason Dunion, is a recipient of the prestigious PECASE award

Jason Dunion, Ph.D. – a Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) meteorologist affiliated with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) – has been awarded the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), the most prestigious award granted by the U.S. government to exceptional scientists and engineers in the early stages […]

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View from navigator's station aboard a NOAA hurricane hunter plane in the eye of Hurricane Milton. Taken approximately 10 a.m. on October 9, 2024. Lieutenant Commander Andrew Utama, NOAA Corps. (Image credit: NOAA plane in the eye of Milton. 10/9/24.)

New NOAA system ushers in next generation of hurricane modeling, forecasting

Originally published on noaa.gov on January 13th, 2025. Accurate forecasts and early warnings from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) — are vital to safeguarding communities that are in the paths of hurricanes and tropical storms.  As we kick off the new year, now is the perfect time to look back […]

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Image shows researchers and scientists in their flight suits, gathered around the center of the Hurricane Hunter P-3 Orion as they listen intently to the preflight briefing before flying into the storm.

Innovation, insight and impact: groundbreaking research through the 2024 hurricane season

November 30th marks the official end of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Throughout this active season, NOAA scientists set new records in tropical cyclone research that will improve forecasting accuracy, enhance our understanding of storm behavior, and strengthen preparedness efforts for communities in hurricane-prone regions. Their dedication and innovation contribute to a safer and more […]

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