NOAA’s most recent P-3 mission provided scientists and forecasters with measurements indicating that Tropical Storm Isaias maintains its strength as it contends with an environment that is unfavorable for development. Scientists processed these data in real-time, and weather models used these observations to improve forecast performance.
NOAA reconnaissance continues into Tropical Storm Isaias today after their most recent P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft returns home from its 7-hour mission tasked by the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), which took off at 4:30 AM EDT Saturday, August 1st.
NOAA’s P-3 aircraft will continue Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) tasked reconnaissance into Hurricane Isaias by penetrating the core of its circulation multiple times in order to obtain the most reliable measurements of its environmental conditions. The aircraft took off from Lakeland, FL Friday at 4:00 PM.
NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) has tasked their P-3 Hurricane Hunters for reconnaissance missions into Tropical Storm Isaias to begin Friday, July 31 at 4:00 AM with additional missions to follow in subsequent days.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to task NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft NOAA43 into Tropical Storm Hanna located in the Gulf of Mexico. AOML radar and dropsonde experts are providing remotely-based data processing in support of these operational missions. The flights are scheduled to continue through Saturday morning, July 25, 2020.
The National Hurricane Center tasked NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate Tropical Depression Eight in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, July 23, 2020.
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season ended on November 30 but not before churning out 18 named storms, including catastrophic Hurricane Dorian. Throughout the season, AOML’s hurricane scientists were at the forefront of NOAA’s efforts to prepare vulnerable communities for severe weather.
AOML’s hurricane scientists conducted multiple airborne missions into several tropical systems that formed in the Atlantic in September and October. The data gathered in Humberto, Jerry, pre-Karen, Lorenzo, and Nestor improved track and intensity forecasts, aiding NOAA’s efforts to prepare vulnerable communities for severe weather. The missions also supported research to better understand how tropical cyclones form, intensify, and dissipate, as well as supported efforts to validate satellite measurements of these storms.
Over the past 20 years, improvements in hurricane computer modeling, observational instrumentation, and forecaster training have greatly increased forecast accuracy. The many complex interactions that occur within the atmosphere remain to be fully understood, especially at the small scales associated with tropical cyclones. However, these milestones mark critical advances in numerical weather prediction that are paving the way to the next generation of NOAA models. While hurricanes cannot be controlled, vulnerability to these complex storms can be reduced through preparedness. Early warning and improved accuracy of forecasts can help save lives and reduce property damages caused by hurricanes.
AOML is currently in the midst of a multi-year effort called the Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX). IFEX aims to improve the understanding and prediction of intensity change by collecting observations from all stages of a tropical cyclone life cycle—genesis to decay—to enhance current observational models. By building on years of observational expertise and cutting-edge approaches to data integration and model development, hurricane scientists at AOML lead advancements in observations and modeling that have improved intensity forecasts by 20% in recent years.
