November 30th marks the official end of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Throughout this active season, NOAA scientists set new records in tropical cyclone research that will improve forecasting accuracy, enhance our understanding of storm behavior, and strengthen preparedness efforts for communities in hurricane-prone regions. Their dedication and innovation contribute to a safer and more […]
In recent years, meteorologists have made strides in predicting the trajectory of tropical cyclones as models and forecasts have become more accurate. However, forecasting intensity remains a much larger challenge; small changes in atmospheric conditions can have a large impact on forecasts. To better understand why some forecasts are more accurate, scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic […]
As Hurricane Helene developed in the Gulf of Mexico, NOAA researchers gathered critical data from the sea and sky to better understand tropical cyclones and support the National Hurricane Center forecasters. This real time data gives meteorologists a clearer picture of the storm environment and structure, reducing forecast uncertainty. Researchers from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & […]
One of the largest challenges in hurricane research is studying the inner dynamics of a storm. The regions within the hurricane that provide the most valuable data are often the most inaccessible and dangerous to reach, creating an opportunity for researchers to utilize emerging technology to enter the storm. Small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS), commonly […]
A 12-year collaboration between NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has culminated in a renewal of an Implementing Arrangement (IA) on Technical Cooperation in Development of Tropical Cyclone Numerical Weather Prediction System for the Indian Seas, which paves the way for advances in severe weather modeling. […]
In early July, the Caribbean experienced 165 mph winds as Category 5 Hurricane Beryl swept through the region. Beryl was unprecedented, becoming the Atlantic’s earliest forming Category 5 tropical cyclone on record. The storm developed and rapidly intensified to maximum wind speed in less than four days – a behavior uncommon this early in the season. Despite the unprecedented intensification, hurricane scientists with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory were prepared.
Tropical Cyclone Freddy breaks records as the longest-lasting cyclone on record. Spanning 36 days, it traveled from the Australia to Africa, nearly 33% of the Earth’s circumference.
With an active hurricane season on the horizon, the need for reliable hurricane forecasting is at the forefront of our minds. Heightened sea surface temperatures, weakened vertical wind shear, and an enhanced West African monsoon are expected to contribute to the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. To predict these developing storms, meteorologists employ models that rely on current observations and mathematical calculations to predict a storm’s behavior and track. These models are complex and utilize inputs from a variety of sources including historic, numeric, oceanic, and atmospheric data to generate their predictions.
Improvements in the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model paved the way for tropical cyclone prediction and modeling by lowering intensity forecast errors by 45-50%.
In a groundbreaking new study, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists unveiled a significant advancement in hurricane tracking and forecasting. The study, named “The G-IV Inner Circumnavigation: A Story of Successful Organic Interactions Between Research and Operations at NOAA,” discusses how scientists across NOAA are improving hurricane forecasts through the effective use of NOAA […]
