Tag: hurricane forecasts

Radar imagery shows Hurricane Beryl as it crosses the Atlantic and sits just west of Barbados and the Grenadines.

Hurricane Beryl: Looking from sea, sky, and space

In early July, the Caribbean experienced 165 mph winds as Category 5 Hurricane Beryl swept through the region. Beryl was unprecedented, becoming the Atlantic’s earliest forming Category 5 tropical cyclone on record. The storm developed and rapidly intensified to maximum wind speed in less than four days – a behavior uncommon this early in the season. Despite the unprecedented intensification, hurricane scientists with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory were prepared.

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image of Hurricane Franklin early in cyclogenesis. It is over the Atlantic and does not have an eye.

Unveiling the innovative advancements in hurricane modeling

With an active hurricane season on the horizon, the need for reliable hurricane forecasting is at the forefront of our minds. Heightened sea surface temperatures, weakened vertical wind shear, and an enhanced West African monsoon are expected to contribute to the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. To predict these developing storms, meteorologists employ models that rely on current observations and mathematical calculations to predict a storm’s behavior and track. These models are complex and utilize inputs from a variety of sources including historic, numeric, oceanic, and atmospheric data to generate their predictions. 

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NOAA G-IV aircraft flying overhead with blue sky and clouds in the background

Innovative Flight Patterns Boost Hurricane Forecast Accuracy, NOAA Study Finds

In a groundbreaking new study, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists unveiled a significant advancement in hurricane tracking and forecasting. The study, named “The G-IV Inner Circumnavigation: A Story of Successful Organic Interactions Between Research and Operations at NOAA,” discusses how scientists across NOAA are improving hurricane forecasts through the effective use of NOAA […]

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Thirty years of progress in hurricane forecasting since Hurricane Andrew

Hurricane Andrew made landfall on August 24, 1992, near Homestead, Florida, becoming one of the most catastrophic hurricanes in U.S. history. It had an extremely low central pressure of 922 millibars and maximum sustained wind speeds estimated at 165 miles per hour. The storm rapidly intensified less than 36 hours before landfall, leaving most residents less than a day to secure their homes and heed evacuation orders.

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Model image of Hurricane Maria in 2017

Coyote Small Uncrewed Aircraft System Data Improved Hurricane Maria Forecasts

Observations obtained by the Coyote small Uncrewed Aircraft System led to a significant improvement in the analyses of Hurricane Maria’s (2017) position, intensity, and structure, according to new ­research published in the journal Monthly Weather Review. The study by scientists with the University of Miami’s Cooperative ­Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) highlights how ­the ­Coyote’s novel near-surface measurements helped to more ­accurately depict ­Hurricane Maria’s inner core, ­demonstrating their ability to improve forecasts.

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A large orange/red saildrone floats in the ocean

Ocean Drones Brave Hurricanes to Make Coastal Communities Safer

Saildrone is announcing a new mission to deploy five uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) from the US Virgin Islands in August to gather key data throughout the 2021 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season. The USVs will be equipped with specially designed “hurricane wings” to enable them to operate in extreme conditions. Saildrones are the only USVs capable of collecting this data and are designed to withstand winds over 70 mph and waves over 10 feet, which occur during a hurricane weather system. The five saildrones will sail into the paths of hurricanes to provide valuable real-time observations for numerical hurricane prediction models and to collect new insights into how these large and destructive weather cells grow and intensify.

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Drones that hunt hurricanes? NOAA puts some to the test

Originally Published January 25th, 2021 at NOAA.Gov

“We’re hopeful this new technology, once it can be successfully tested in a hurricane environment, will improve our understanding of the boundary layer and advance NOAA forecast models used in forecasts,” said Joseph Cione, lead meteorologist at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Research Division. “Ultimately, these new observations could help emergency managers make informed decisions on evacuations before tropical cyclones make landfall.”

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