November 30th marks the official end of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Throughout this active season, NOAA scientists set new records in tropical cyclone research that will improve forecasting accuracy, enhance our understanding of storm behavior, and strengthen preparedness efforts for communities in hurricane-prone regions. Their dedication and innovation contribute to a safer and more resilient future for those facing the impacts of extreme weather events.
NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) flew into eight different tropical cyclones and conducted a total of 67 operational and research missions aboard the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. These missions started as early as June with Category 5 Hurricane Beryl as it rapidly intensified in the Caribbean, and continued as late as November as Hurricane Rafael moved northward towards Cuba and the Gulf.
Research missions were conducted in partnership with NOAA’s Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO), and operational missions were requested by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and the Environmental Modeling Center to collect data and observations that are crucial for improving track and intensity forecasts.
Select research instruments used in the 2024 hurricane season: Hurricane Hunter aircraft, GPS dropsondes, Skyfora StreamSondes, Black Swift drones, Airborne eXpendable BathyThermographs, saildrones, underwater gliders. Image credit: Maria Raykova
Gathering Observations
AOML researchers took to the skies alongside NOAA aviators to gather data from inside the storms. The Hurricane Hunters conducted missions aboard both the P-3 Orion and the high altitude Gulfstream G-IV to gather observations from above and inside the storms. Throughout a total of 67 flight missions, researchers released 1,411 GPS Dropsondes, 70 Airborne eXpendable BathyThermographs, and collected 190 Tail Doppler Radar analyses. These instruments were critical in gathering data from inaccessible regions within the storms and improving forecast accuracy for future storms.
Aviators inside the Hurricane Hunter P-3 Orion prepare to fly into a developing storm to gather critical data to improve hurricane forecasts.
In addition to collecting atmospheric data, AOML and partners deployed instruments to gather data from regions extending deep into the ocean waters. Throughout the season, AOML and partners operated six underwater glider missions in the tropical Atlantic basin, gathering temperature and salinity data to depths of 900 meters. These missions collected approximately 6,000 temperature and salinity profiles during over 500 glider-days, including data from one glider located within 50 nautical miles of Hurricane Ernesto. Glider data is giving researchers a clearer understanding of how the ocean can impact hurricanes, and furthering the scientific understanding of ocean-atmosphere interactions.
NOAA also partnered with Saildrone, Inc. to deploy 12 Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles that collected observations from the air-sea interface. During their time at sea, the saildrones traveled over 32,000 miles and gathered 768 total days of observations. Saildrone intercepted hurricanes 16 times for a total of 102 hours in tropical storm-force wind conditions, providing near-real time data on pressure, wind speed, temperature, and more. Saildrone measured a maximum 3-second wind gust of 114 mph and maximum significant wave height of 44 feet. This season resulted in the most hurricane intercepts so far for Saildrone, with 6 occurring in the Gulf of Mexico. These observations give us a better understanding of the boundary layer where the ocean and atmosphere interact, which is critical in driving storm formation and intensification.
Footage from a camera onboard Saildrone shows the conditions at the ocean’s surface as Hurricane Milton develops and moves across the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast.
Breaking Records
AOML researchers repeatedly broke records in hurricane data collection throughout the 2024 hurricane season. Through a partnership with Black Swift Technologies, AOML successfully launched 17 S0 small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) into four hurricanes, and set records in endurance, communications distance, and maximum recorded wind speed data collected. Inside Hurricane Helene, the Black Swift S0 flew for 105 minutes and reached a maximum communication distance of 166 nautical miles—a major advancement from a decade ago when the record was 10 nautical miles. As the Black Swift S0 flew inside Category 3 Hurricane Milton, it recorded record breaking maximum wind speeds of 209 knots at 500 meters above the sea surface, an area no crewed aircraft could gather this information. Observations from uncrewed aircraft systems like the S0 allow scientists to gather data from previously inaccessible regions of the storm, paving the way for significant advancements in hurricane forecasting.
Jack Elston (Left), CEO and founder of Black Swift Technologies and Joseph Cione (Right), NOAA Lead Meteorologist for Emerging Technologies, standing in front of the NOAA WP-3D Orion Hurricane Hunter aircraft, holding a Black Swift S0 model.
Throughout the 2024 season, researchers had the unique opportunity to test the newest hurricane observation instrument: the Skyfora StreamSonde. These innovative sondes are the lightest available, and allow scientists to release many individual sondes simultaneously, at a maximum rate of 50 within one minute, providing a dense array of measurements in a concentrated area over a short period of time. Researchers released a total of 91 StreamSondes in the 2024 season, and were able to hone the new “swarm system.” By experimenting with emerging technologies like StreamSondes, AOML aims to pioneer advancements that revolutionize hurricane research technology, ensuring more accurate forecasting and enhanced understanding of storm dynamics.
Skyfora StreamSondes are seen sitting in a box, preparing for deployment from the bottom of the NOAA P3-Orion Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
Improving Forecasts
This season, AOML’s hurricane researchers focused on evaluating the accuracy of their newest hurricane forecast model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).
HAFS enabled NOAA forecasters to accurately capture and predict Hurricane Milton’s rapid intensification, providing four days notice that a major hurricane would make landfall in Florida. HAFS also accurately captured Milton’s structural evolution, from its compact size during rapid intensification to its broader, asymmetric structure as it approached Florida. A steady influx of Hurricane Hunter data collected by OAR scientists on NOAA’s P-3 and G-IV aircraft was integrated into HAFS, leading to forecast improvements.
Preliminary results indicate that the operational HAFS system performed best after day three. To support the goals of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), AOML also tested a more advanced experimental version of the HAFS system, known as the Multi-Storm HAFS, in near real-time during this hurricane season. This experimental version demonstrated approximately a 10% improvement in track forecasts and over a 20% improvement in intensity predictions over operational HAFS, highlighting its potential to drive significant advancements in future operational implementations of HAFS.
This graph shows the relationship between wind speed and forecast lead time. The orange line represents NOAA’s HAFS model, and the black line represents the actual recorded development of the storm. The strong correlation between these lines demonstrates the exemplary performance of the HAFS model in predicting the development and intensification of Hurricane Milton.
The dedicated scientists, flight crews, and staff that supported the 2024 Hurricane Field Program spent months of long hours working diligently to gather data that will advance our understanding of storms and improve forecasts, with the ever present goal of protecting lives and property.
For more information on the NOAA-wide efforts throughout the season, please visit: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/2024-hurricane-field-program/
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/atlantic-hurricane-season-races-to-finish-within-range-of-predicted-number-of-named-storms