AOML’s Hurricane Modeling Group was founded in 2007 to advance hurricane forecast models through development and targeted research. From inception, the team has worked to improve NOAA’s hurricane modeling systems; first with the legacy Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (HWRF) model, and now with its transition to the next generation model, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).
NOAA and partners are improving hurricane forecasting by harnessing the power of new technologies and working to coordinate these technologies to predict hurricane track, intensity, and rapid intensification.
Researchers at NOAA seek new techniques to advance hurricane forecasts to better protect life and property. In preparation for the upcoming 2023 hurricane season, which begins June 1, scientists are accelerating the use of small uncrewed aircraft technologies and the collocation of observational ocean assets, among other advancements. Here are five ways that NOAA researchers are improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts:
How do weak, misaligned tropical cyclones evolve towards alignment? A multi-case study using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System
The ability to predict whether and when a tropical cyclone will become vertically aligned is critical for intensity change forecasts, as storms can intensify quickly after achieving an aligned structure. A recent study from researchers at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies shows how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones containing different center locations with height, called misalignment, can develop a vertically aligned structure. This study works to improve forecasts of when this alignment might occur by identifying key times of the day and other tropical cyclone characteristics when alignment is likely.
A new study from scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute of Marine & Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) investigates Hurricane Dorian’s track forecast uncertainties.