Study showing how small errors in observations and models can impact predictability published in Chaos
This study uses a simple chaotic system to show that both model error and initial condition errors have profound impacts on predictability. These findings may have very important ramifications for how to design computer forecast models (and models in other fields where computer simulations are used) to improve their predictability. It is also shown for the first […]
AOML participates in American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.
Historic NOAA-Saildrone mission did more than set records. It’s helping scientists improve hurricane forecasts
On September 30, 2021, a saildrone uncrewed surface vehicle made history by intercepting the eyewall of Hurricane Sam in the northwestern tropical Atlantic, recording a viral video of what it’s like to be tossed around by 100 mile-per-hour winds and 30-foot high waves. The Guinness Book of World Records later certified that a 126.4 mile-per-hour wind gust recorded […]
Paper on ways to improve hurricane forecasts by changing how models forecast what happens closest to the surface published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
This research develops and tests a new approach of mass-flux parameterizations in high-wind-speed conditions like hurricanes. The better scheme has been implemented into NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System-B model to advance its skill in predicting TC structure and impacts such as storm surge and wind damage. The lowest 1-2 km of atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer […]
The real story of the beginning of hurricane aircraft reconnaissance published in Weatherwise Magazine
The story of the beginnings of aircraft reconnaissance of hurricanes has long been mythologized. The truth is more complex and interesting. The story of the first aircraft penetration of the eye of a hurricane by Lt. Colonel Joe Duckworth of the US Army Air Forces (USAAF) on 27 July, 1943, is told, but some myths have arisen concerning this event. There were previous attempts at hurricanereconnaissance, and a rival method (marine […]
Review of the state-of-the-science of probabilistic track and formation forecasts published in Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
This work explores the current state of the science of forecasts that provide a range of possibilities (i.e., probabilistic forecasts) of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and track. Probabilistic TC forecast products can be an important resource for helping the public manage their level of risk from TC impacts. We examine experimental probabilistic genesis and track […]
HRD employees recognized by NOAA Research at awards ceremony
Four Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies employees were recognized on 5 December in a hybrid event held in Silver Spring for their leadership and for personal and professional excellence. Congratulations to Jason, Bill, Andy, and Sarah for their exceptional work to improve hurricane forecasts! For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.
November 30 marks the end of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season
his season, NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew 468 mission hours to collect atmospheric data that is critical to hurricane forecasting and research, passing through the eye of a hurricane 120 times and deploying over 1,400 scientific instruments. Since 2020 through this 2023 season, NOAA’s two Lockheed WP-3D Orion have flown 40% more hurricane mission flights than the preceding […]
Paper showing how interactions between NOAA researchers and operational forecasters led to forecast improvements published in The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
This study highlights a successful research-to-operations implementation and evaluation, facilitated by having close connections between the research and operational communities within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In particular, research at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) led the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to modify flight-track patterns for some aircraft missions around tropical […]
