Review of the state-of-the-science of probabilistic track and formation forecasts published in Tropical Cyclone Research and Review

This work explores the current state of the science of forecasts that provide a range of possibilities (i.e., probabilistic forecasts) of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis and track. Probabilistic TC forecast products can be an important resource for helping the public manage their level of risk from TC impacts. We examine experimental probabilistic genesis and track forecast products being developed and produced at various forecasts centers around the globe, perspectives of understanding and communicating probabilistic forecasts of TC genesis and track, and availability of resources for producing these forecasts.

Example of the NOAA National Hurricane Center’s 0-3 day Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm-Force Winds graphic for Tropical Storm Idalia in 2023. This product identifies the time before which there is only a 1-in-10 (10%) chance that users will experience no tropical-storm-force winds at any particular location. This represents
the period during which preparations should ideally be completed for those with a low tolerance for risk.

Weather forecasters around the globe produce forecasts with a range of possibilities (probabilistic forecasts). Since these forecasts tell the public the likelihood that a certain event (like a tropical cyclone) will affect them, they can be important for managing their response; an example of a probabilistic forecast is shown in the figure above. The 2018 International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) found that the use and availability of multiple and diverse computer model forecasts that provide probabilistic forecasts (ensemble forecasts) was lacking. IWTC-9 recommendations led to the formation of the World Meteorological Organization/World Weather Research Program Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP) project whose main goal is to help identify the best probabilistic TC forecast products. This article reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC genesis and track.

Important Conclusions:

Communication among forecast centers on different probabilistic forecast approaches for genesis and track would be helpful for conveying best practices and improving the forecasts available to the public.
Close collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC forecasts would help to ensure that the public and others can make effective decisions based on TC forecasts.
Forecast centers need timely access to ensembles of computer forecasts that are consistent and user-friendly. Greater consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility, probabilistic forecast products.

For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov. The article can be found online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603223000528.