FRESCA

Florida Regional Ecosystems Stressors Collaborative Assessment (FRESCA)

Examining the effects of multiple environmental stressors on essential marine ecosystems across South Florida under a changing climate 

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About the Project

The Florida Regional Ecosystems Stressors Collaborative Assessment, or “FRESCA,” is a four-year collaborative effort co-led by scientists at AOML and the University of Miami and involving seven research institutions to assess the current and future impacts of five key environmental stressors exacerbated by climate change across South Florida: ocean acidificationocean warminghypoxiaharmful algal blooms, and eutrophication

FRESCA is organized into four key modules that both complement and build off of each other as scientists across institutions investigate the future impacts of these global threats on South Florida ecosystems and our communities.

Explore Each Module Here: 

Click The Logo to see the Project Announcement:
FRESCA Logo, grey circle explaining: FRESCA, Florida Regional Ecosystems Stressors Collaborative Assessment

Investigating Future Impacts

of Global Threats 

On Local Ecosystems and Communities 

Who We Are

| Ana Palacio, Ph.D.

Assistant Scientist

| Ian Enochs, Ph.D.

Principal Investigator

| Enrique Montes, Ph.D.

Assistant Scientist

| Fabian Gomez, Ph.D. 

Research Scientist

| Nicole Besemer

Caribbean Climate Operations Coordinator

| Heidi Hirsh, Ph.D.

Assistant Scientist

| John Morris, Ph.D.

Postdoctoral Associate

| Emma Pontes, Ph.D.

Postdoctoral Associate

| Brittany Troast

Senior Research Associate

| Ian Smith

Research Associate

Top News

New Study Reveals Impacts of Suspended Sediment from Port Miami on Larvae from Threatened Caribbean Coral 

New study led by scientists at CIMAS, AOML and NMFS reveals impacts of suspended sediment from Port Miami on early life stages of a threatened Caribbean coral species.

An orange coral polyp zoomed in to see the edges as its attached to the microplate

Read More News

Image of tanks in the experimental reef lab. Photo Credit: NOAA. Environmental Reef Lab Tanks. Photo Credit: NOAA. Two white robotic arms hang over a series of tanks under the blue light with a black circle at the end where the pipettes attach
Aerial photo of coastline with trees, sandy beach, and ocean water
Ian Enochs floats above completely bleached Cheeca Rocks
A marine heatwave has spread across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean with temperatures ranging between one and three degrees Celsius (~2-4.5˚F) above average. Ocean temperatures around south Florida are the warmest on record for the month of July (dating back to 1981). Marine heatwaves are not unprecedented, but their influence on tropical storm development and coral reef health, as well as the persistence of the current heatwave, are among the causes for concern. 

Background and Key Impacts

South Florida and the people that live there are uniquely connected to the environment, and the marine habitats that surround them. From food and fishing, to recreation, business, and infrastructure, South Florida ecosystems are inexorably linked to the vitality, success, and resilience of the people that live here. The area, however, is beset by a suite of stressors that if left unmanaged, threaten our marine life and communities alike. The Florida Regional Ecosystem Stressors Collaborative Assessment, or project FRESCA for short, is a large-scale, multidisciplinary project, focussed on monitoring, predicting, and managing these ecosystems in an era of change. 

With a focus on the Southwest Florida Shelf and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), this study seeks to characterize the impacts of these five key stressors on the Everglades, mangroves, seagrass and coral reef ecosystems and restoration projects through the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) and Mission: Iconic Reefs (M: IR).  In accomplishing this, FRESCA also aims to assess the effectiveness of these restoration projects under multiple climate change scenarios to determine the best path forward.

A map of South florida with the majority of the region highlighted yellow while the Everglades (green) compose the lower portion of the state, bordering the Soutwest Florida Shelf (maroon) to the left, the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas (highlighted purple going the stretch of the islands and covering the whole Floriday Keys National Marine Sanctuary, and the Southeast Florida Coast (highlighted blue) on the right, north of Biscayne National Park adn the Everglades National Park
Understanding Coral Reef Ecosystems

The long-term and comprehensive study of coral reef ecosystems improves understanding of how coral reefs respond to changes in the environment over time and predict how they will fare when exposed to increasing sea surface temperatures, ocean acidification, fishing, disease and pollution from land. AOML’s Coral Program has collected years of data and leads the in-situ climate change and ocean acidification monitoring for the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.

Creating Partnerships

AOML’s Coral Program is an integrated and focused monitoring effort developing and maintaining strong partnerships with federal, state/territory, academic and other partners across the U.S. The program collaborates with partners such as NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries, NOAA Fisheries, NOAA Coral Reef Watch, NOAA National Centers for Ocean and Coastal Science, the University of Virgin Islands, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Moorings International, and and the National Park Service.

Critical High Impact Data

AOML’s Coral Program provides consistent, sustained, and long‐term measurements of key indicators that gauge the status and trends of coral reef health providing a greater understanding of how a changing climate is impacting the nation’s coral reef ecosystems.

Module1

Module 1: Assessing the Spatiotemporal Variability of the Five Key Stressors

While climate change is a global threat, its impacts (i.e., “environmental stressors”) are not uniform across ecosystems. From shallow mangrove forests to offshore coral reefs, different regions and ecosystems will be more susceptible to specific environmental stressors while others may prove more resilient. 

The intensity of these stressors can also be expected to fluctuate across seasons, years and decades. Therefore, Module 1 seeks to first describe how five key environmental stressors brought on by climate change will affect ecosystems local to South Florida – and how their impacts are expected to vary both spatially and overtime.

1.1 Describing the Spatiotemporal Variability of the Five Key Stressors

Identifying Impacts of Key Stressors Across South Florida

Enhanced cruise surveys along designated transects will enable our team to measure biogeochemical parameters to understand the spatial scope of the five key stressors. Repeated cruises along these transects on the Southwest Florida Shelf and in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, respectively, allows us to monitor trends and identify potential hotspots for these stressors across South Florida. 

 

A map of the FRESCA study area. Cruise surveys will embark repeatedly along each respective transect and collect water samples at designated stations (marked with multicolored points).

Ship-based measurements are analyzed jointly with satellite data such as sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration and fluorescence, and other parameters to better understand stressor distributions at the regional scale, and enhance interpolation and modeling capabilities.

1.2 Regional Biogeochemical Modeling (MOM6 – COBALT Modeling)

Scientists use the vast database created to produce high-resolution models of the complex biogeochemical processes influencing the waters of South Florida. 

MOM6 – COBALT Models enable our team to see how these stressors brought on by climate change vary across the region, and by integrating Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate scenarios, project how these key stressors are expected to intensify as climate change worsens.

1.3 Benthic Ecosystem Metabolism Modeling in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

Sea fans and corals in the sand sway with the current of a blue sea, a beautiful benthic reef

From seagrass beds performing photosynthesis and respiration to corals calcifying, the metabolic activity of benthic communities significantly influences the seawater carbonate chemistry of marine ecosystems, either exacerbating or mitigating stressors such as ocean acidification. 

Developing SLiM models will enable us to predict the influence of benthic communities on the carbonate chemistry across the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary.

Module2

Module21

Module 2: Identifying Species – Specific Thresholds to Multiple Stressors 

Module 2, organized into three overarching experiments, is dedicated to determining how habitat-altering species of coral, bioeroders (i.e. sponges) and photosynthetic organisms are impacted by three environmental stressors: ocean acidification (OA) , temperature, and hypoxia (oxygen-deprivation). 

To go a step further, we’re investigating  how ocean acidification and changes in temperature influence the growth rates of Karenia brevis, the algae responsible for Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) and hypoxia in extreme scenarios. This approach enables us to determine not only how essential marine biodiversity is affected by multiple stressors but also how these stressors influence each other as they are exacerbated by climate change.

Ian Enochs explains coral science to visiting class. Photo Credit: NOAA.

Using Our Experimental Reef Lab to Identify Key Thresholds 

With AOML’s Experimental Reef Lab, Experiments 1 and 2 are designed to identify thresholds at which key marine species for reef habitat persistence (corals, sponges) and photosynthetic organisms known to alter the impacts of environmental stressors (Seagrasses and sargassum) face degradation and mortality when exposed to ocean acidification, above-average temperatures and hypoxia. 

Experiment 1

The goal of this experiment is to identify thresholds of species to ocean acidification (elevated pCO2) and hypoxia for these ecologically-important benthic species. 

This will include: 

  • 12 coral species 
  • 2 bioeroders
  • 2 photosynthetic taxa

Experiment 2

Building on the findings of Experiment 1, we will assess the hypoxia response for 3 coral species, 2 Bioeroders (Sponges) and 1 photosynthetic taxum (Thalassia, Mangrove). To simulate exposure of these essential species to multiple stressors, the goal of Experiment 2 is to determine how ocean acidification and above-average temperatures influence each species’ tolerance to hypoxia (low-oxygen).

 Identifying How Environmental Stressors Affect Harmful Algal Bloom (HABs) Formation 

In collaboration with the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, this module goes further to assess how ocean acidification, temperature, and nutrient concentrations impact the growth rates of Karenia brevis, the algae responsible for creating hypoxic conditions, Harmful Algal Blooms (HABS) and Florida’s “Red Tides.”

To achieve this, we are examining how K. brevis growth rates, cell volume and brevetoxin production change in response to various combinations of temperature, pH, and nitrogen to phosphorus ratios. 

Additional Links: 

To learn more about K. brevis and Red Tides: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/hab/gulf-mexico.html 

Explore NOAA’s “Ecological Forecasting” of Red Tides in the Gulf of Mexico: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/ecoforecasting/ 

Current Forecasting of Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom (HABs): https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/science-areas/habs/hab-forecasts/gulf-of-mexico/

A diagram of the Gulf of Mexico with the land black, the blue ocean and a red outlining across the Gulf coastline with a photo of Karenia brevis at the center. The photo Explains: Karenia Brevis also known as "Red Tide" In the Gulf of Mexico, some harmful algal blooms are caused by the rapid gowth of the microscopitc algae Karenia brevis, commonly called red tde. Red tide can cause respiratory illness and eye irritation in humans, can contamintae seafood, and can kill marine life. The photo also has diagrams next to the caption sayind "Ride is Harmful to Humans and Marine Life" with icons conveying Eye irritation, Respiratory Illness, Loss of Marine Life and Contaminated Seafood

Module3

Module 3: Benthic habitat persistence and restoration progress at the seven Mission: Iconic Reefs

As recent studies demonstrate 70% of Florida’s coral reefs are experiencing net loss of reef habitat, meaning erosion is significantly outpacing carbonate production, we are developing highly detailed carbonate budget models to assess the persistence of the seven Mission: Iconic Reefs across the Florida Keys under a changing climate.

How We’re Doing This

Coral reef structures, made up of Calcium Carbonate (CaCO₃), are dependent on the balance between carbonate (CO₃) production and erosion (i.e. “Bioerosion”). 

Carbonate Producers, known as “Calcifiers,” are those organisms that extract carbonate (CO₃) from the water to produce a hard calcium carbonate skeleton. This includes both soft and hard corals as well as shellfish such as oysters, clams, and mussels. Under climate change, ocean acidification leads to less available carbonate and the degradation of these organisms’ hard, external structures. 

 “Bioeroders” are marine organisms that naturally graze on and degrade the calcium carbonate skeletons (CaCO₃) of corals, shellfish and other calcifying marine organisms. Bioeroders on coral reefs commonly include parrotfish, sea urchins, sponges, and polychaete worms.

This balance is what makes up a coral reef’s carbonate budget

While the majority of Florida’s reefs are experiencing a net loss of habitat structure, meaning erosion is significantly outpacing carbonate production, our team is creating high-quality carbonate budget models in the seven Mission: Iconic Reefs sites to analyze the impacts of ongoing conservation strategies under climate change.

Deep blue reef with green corals and rock sway in the blue ocean
Graham Kolodziej takes a photomosaic above a reef with full dive gear a black wet suit and a huge camera

Building on the habitat modeling, photomosaics and imagery performed by Mission: Iconic Reefs at each site, these carbonate budget models will be sensitive to four of the five key environmental stressors: ocean acidification, ocean warming, hypoxia, harmful algal blooms (HABs). 

By integrating key findings from Module 1 and Module 2 concerning both the distribution of stressors and identified thresholds of specific species, these models will be able to determine the effectiveness of a variety of reef restoration scenarios, including reef zones within each site. 

The vast capabilities of this cutting-edge technology will allow us to assess and predict how each Mission: Iconic Reef’s carbonate budget is impacted by climate change and these respective stressors, unlocking key findings to advance current and future reef conservation strategies. 

Module4

We see the whole reef beuatiful variety of color mainy greena nd blue without any white

Module 4: Community Responses to Stressor Conditions 

To fully examine the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems, this module is dedicated to analyzing the response of key planktonic and fish species to the five key stressors and their varying distribution from the southwestern Florida Shelf to the Florida Keys. Using data collected both through research cruises and high-resolution ecosystem modeling, we will be able to assess how the distribution of environmental stressors observed under Module 1 will change both plankton and fish productivity under future climate change scenarios.

Module 4 is separated into two components: 

  • Assessing plankton community and distribution
  • Ecosystem Modeling using VAST Models, EwE Ecopath + Ecosim

Assessing Plankton Community Distribution 

Plankton form the base of essential marine food webs. Therefore, to fully understand the impacts of these environmental stressors brought on by climate change, we must assess how the distribution of planktonic species across South Florida varies – and how they respond to these extreme conditions. 

Through field experiments and surveys performed on cruises along the Southwest Florida Shelf and the Florida Keys, we are identifying how planktonic species vary across the entire study area and examining the trophic dynamics at play.

A green swirly of pigments connecting to form a set of phytoplankton with the green fluorescent in the ocean
A phytoplankton bloom in the Atlantic Ocean. May 2016

What We’re Assessing: 

  1. The spatial distribution, size structure and abundance of key planktonic species, relative to the presence and intensity of the five key stressors at each station 
  2. Measuring key parameters including observations of the seascape, live bottom, reefs, water temperature and salinity at each station to understand trophic dynamics:

Ecosystem Modeling 

All ecosystems are interconnected. These models capture that complexity.

The vast data and key findings of each Module will culminate in the production of highly-complex and dynamic ecosystem models that will play a pivotal role in essential management and conservation strategies as environmental stressors and climate change intensify. 

Vector Autoregressive Spatio-temporal Model (VAST) 

With VAST Modeling, we can estimate the population densities of multiple target fish species across different habitats, regions and time. As we investigate the distribution of environmental stressors across South Florida (Module 1), we are modeling how specific species populations fluctuate across seasons and years and forecast how this natural fluctuation will change under different climate scenarios. Target species include both snapper and grouper with population estimates based initially off of catch and abundance data. 

Inputs:

  • General distribution of the environmental stressors across South Florida, identified in Module 1  
  • Observations of the seascape during cruise surveys of Module 4

Outputs:

  • Target species of snapper and grouper based off catch/abundance data
  • Ability to forecast impacts of stressors on target fish species populations under multiple climate scenarios

Ecopath with Ecosim Modeling (EwE) 

Ecopath with Ecosim Modeling (EwE) allows us to see the impacts of environmental stressors under climate change on food webs, species populations, and the fisheries that comprise crucial marine ecosystems across South Florida.

  • Where we produce a static, mass – balanced model of the target ecosystem using data and research collected across each Module 

    ECOPATH

  • Where a time-dynamic simulation is produced to evaluate the impacts of stressors on an ecosystem 

    ECOSIM

  • the final, complex model conveys the spatial and temporal impacts of stressors on an ecosystem. The complexity of Ecospace allows scientists to observe the impact of establishing protected areas and other conservation strategies, enhancing our ability to identify the most effective strategies to protect the natural environment in the wake of climate change using ecosystem-based management.

    ECOSPACE

Publications

Coral Reef Carbonate Chemistry Reveals Interannual, Seasonal, and Spatial Impacts on Ocean Acidification Off Florida

class=”has-small-font-size”>A. M. Palacio-Castro, I. C. Enochs, et al.

Ocean acidification (OA) threatens coral reef persistence by decreasing calcification and accelerating the dissolution of reef frameworks. The carbonate chemistry of coastal areas where many reefs exist is strongly influenced by the metabolic activity of the underlying benthic community, contributing to high spatiotemporal variability. While characterizing this variability is difficult, it has important implications for the progression of OA and the persistence of the ecosystems. Here, we characterized the carbonate chemistry at 38 permanent stations located along 10 inshore-offshore transects spanning 250 km of the Florida Coral Reef (FCR), which encompass four major biogeographic regions (Biscayne Bay, Upper Keys, Middle Keys, and Lower Keys) and four shelf zones (inshore, mid-channel, offshore, and oceanic). Data have been collected since 2010, with approximately bi-monthly periodicity starting in 2015. Increasing OA, driven by increasing DIC, was detected in the mid-channel, offshore, and oceanic zones in every biogeographic region. In the inshore zone, however, increasing TA counteracted any measurable OA trend. Strong seasonal variability occurred at inshore sites and included periods of both exacerbated and mitigated OA. Seasonality was region-dependent, with greater variability in the Lower and Middle Keys. Elevated pH and aragonite saturation states (ΩAr) were observed in the Upper and Middle Keys, which could favor reef habitat persistence in these regions. Offshore reefs in the FCR could be more susceptible to global OA by experiencing open-ocean-like water chemistry conditions. By contrast, higher seasonal variability at inshore reefs could offer a temporary OA refuge during periods of enhanced primary production.

Download the full paper

We see the front page of the publication of the Global Biogeocemical Cycle with the title and authors followed by the Abstract, etc.

Pointofcontact

Points of Contact By Module

Media Contact:

Laura Chaibongsai

Module 1:

Ian Enochs, Ph.D.

Ana Palacio, Ph.D. 

Enrique Montes, Ph.D.  

Fabian Gomez, Ph.D.

Heidi Hirsh, Ph.D. 

Ian Smith 

External:

Yida Gao, Ph.D. – Research Scientist Fish and Wildlife Research Institute 

Kate Hubbard, Ph.D. – Research Scientist, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute 

Eric Mulbach – Biological Scientist, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute

Digna Rueda Roa, Ph.D. – Scientist, University of South Florida

Frank Muller-Karger, Ph.D.  – Professor, University of South Florida 

Dan Otis, Ph.D.  – Scientific Researcher, University of South Florida 

Module 2:

Benthic Taxa Team – Experimental Reef Lab

Ian Enochs, Ph.D.

Ana Palacio, Ph.D. 

Nicole Besemer, MPS

Emma Pontes, Ph.D. 

 

Phytoplankton (HABs) Team Point of Contact – External

Nicole Millette, Ph.D. – Assistant Professor, Virginia Institute of Marine Science

Kate Hubbard, Ph.D.  – Research Scientist, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute 

Heather Corson – Laboratory Specialist II, Virginia Institute of Marine Science

Module 3:

John Morris, Ph.D. (Project Lead)

 Ian Enochs, Ph.D.

Ana Palacio, Ph.D. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Module 4:

Plankton Community Assessment Team: 

Chris Kelble, Ph.D.  

Enrique Montes, Ph.D.  

Ian Smith 

External:

Nicole Millette, Ph.D. – Assistant Professor, Virginia Institute of Marine Science 

Kate Hubbard, Ph.D. – Research Scientist, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute

Ecosystem Modeling Team:

Brittany Troast 

External: 

Holden Harris, Ph.D. – Assistant Scientist, NOAA Southeast Fisheries Science Center 

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