NOAA has released their seasonal outlook for the 2026 hurricane season – spanning from June 1st to November 30th – reporting a 55% probability of a below average season. This prediction is primarily driven by several factors including a strong El Niño event expected to emerge in the Pacific basin. This phenomenon will disrupt typical atmospheric conditions, resulting in increased vertical wind shear, thus suppressing the formation and organization of major hurricanes throughout the Atlantic season.
El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO), is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by above average sea surface temperatures and weakened trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, its impact is far-reaching, resulting in the global redistribution of temperature and precipitation, and thus the occurrence of high impact extreme weather events like floods and droughts. However, a less active Atlantic hurricane season is also a resulting factor.
El Niño generally lessens hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean via increased vertical wind shear across the region, making it harder for thunderstorms to organize into hurricanes. On the other hand, El Niño often increases hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific basins, as the warmer waters provide more energy, and atmospheric conditions become more favorable for storms to form.
When forming the hurricane seasonal outlook, scientists consider different factors and parameters, use various climate models, and look at previous trends. El Niño serves as the primary driver for predictive modeling due to its profound impact on climate variability. The official ENSO outlook is calling for an extreme El Niño event this year. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center states that an El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through the winter (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027).
“Because El Niño exerts such a massive influence on global weather, scientists have poured immense effort into understanding how it behaves. Today, we can predict it months in advance. Yet, because nature always holds surprises, large uncertainties remain—meaning we must always stay prepared.” Hosmay Lopez, AOML oceanographer and NOAA forecaster for the Seasonal Outlook team.
The influence of El Niño varies by region and season. Its effects are most pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the United States, during the winter months. Conversely, tropical latitudes see the greatest impact during the summer and fall, coinciding with the peak of hurricane season in September and October. As the event matures, the influence of ENSO on Atlantic hurricanes generally becomes more evident during the latter portion of the hurricane season, specifically from September through November.
It is important to emphasize that a seasonal outlook represents a probability-based prediction of overall activity rather than a specific weather forecast. By leveraging both dynamical models that capture the physics of climate systems and statistical models to analyze previous seasons, the outlook team formulates these probability-based predictions. This data, coupled with advanced instrumentation, satellite data, and cutting-edge technology like the Black Swift S0 drone, assists in refining specific weather forecasts throughout the season.
Scientists at AOML investigate ENSO for purposes extending beyond hurricane seasonal outlooks. Their research examines how El Niño influences various extreme weather phenomena, including heatwaves, landfalling atmospheric rivers, tornadoes, and hurricanes.
Furthermore, scientists use ENSO as a predictor for subseasonal heatwave and tornado forecasts (one to four weeks). This research allows for more accurate scientific information to be understood so that communities can actively prepare regardless of any weather phenomena, including hurricanes.
For more information, please visit the Climate Prediction Center and read NOAA’s seasonal outlook press release here.