AOML Communications

AOML Communications

Published on: August 4, 2025

On Posted on by AOML Communications to HFIP-Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, Hurricane Research, IFEX - Hurricane Field Program, Modeling and Prediction, Observations, Research Partnerships

Innovations in hurricane research are advancing hurricane prediction

The Hurricane Research Division (HRD) within NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is a worldwide leader in the advancement of hurricane science and prediction by collecting novel airborne observations, testing new observing technologies, and developing state-of-the-art forecast model systems that optimally ingest these unique datasets. These efforts make hurricane forecasts more accurate, ultimately protecting lives, property, and economic activity.

Observations

NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program (HFP) supports operational data collection flights and NOAA’s Advancing the Prediction of Hurricanes Experiment (APHEX), allowing scientists to collect observations throughout the lifecycle of tropical cyclones while evaluating new and existing technologies and strategies. HFP is a collaborative effort between: AOML, the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), the Northern Gulf Institute (NGI), and NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), Aircraft Operations Center (AOC), and UxS Operations Center.

To accomplish its mission, HFP makes extensive use of NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft –  two WP-3D Orions and a Gulfstream-IV Jet – to gather unparalleled observations of hurricanes. Doppler radars aboard the planes yield three-dimensional scans of wind and precipitation, while other technologies measure details the radars cannot see. NOAA, in partnership with academic and private institutions, deploy a variety of instruments like the Blackswift S0 uncrewed aircraft system, atmospheric profilers such as GPS dropwindsondes and Skyfora StreamSondes, and ocean probes like Airborne EXpendable BathyThermographs (AXBTs) are deployed during HFP. AOML also launches underwater gliders to collect data that is used in hurricane forecasts.

A view from inside the cockpit of a NOAA WP-3D Orion hurricane hunter aircraft flying through a storm. A group of 4 aviators and hurricane scientists sit in the cockpit navigating the plane looking out at the view of the sky.
A view from inside the cockpit of a NOAA WP-3D Orion hurricane hunter aircraft flying through a storm. Image Credit, NOAA.

Additionally, AOML is working with NESDIS this season to deploy and evaluate a new, experimental scanning radar system called the Rain, Ocean, Atmosphere Radar System (ROARS) aboard the NOAA Hurricane Hunters. ROARS collects information on wave height, rain, and wind below the aircraft. This system has the potential to help improve forecasts of intensity, track, size and hazards like flooding, tornadoes, and storm surge.

These new technologies will continue to advance our knowledge of hurricanes, fill critical data gaps, and improve hurricane forecast accuracy.

Data Assimilation

To optimize the usefulness of the observations collected during HFP, AOML and CIMAS scientists work with EMC to incorporate the data into NOAA models that predict hurricanes. Data assimilation is a technique by which numerical model data and observations are combined to obtain an analysis that best represents the state of the atmosphere at a specific time to produce the best initial conditions that make the most accurate forecasts. 

GEOCOLOR image of Hurricane Dorian. Photo Credit, NOAA.
GEOCOLOR image of Tropical Storm Isaias in 2020. Image Credit, NOAA.

Scientists at HRD aim to improve data assimilation techniques, simplify data sets for use in research, and test the effectiveness and efficiency of strategies for all observations, but especially those collected during HFP. This research includes the development and application of a next-generation data assimilation system within the new NOAA flagship hurricane forecast model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).

Modeling

HRD leads the research and development of NOAA’s high-resolution modeling systems for tropical cyclones, including the legacy HWRF and the state-of-the-art HAFS. As a key partner in the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP), HRD works closely with EMC and CIMAS, to develop, test, and evaluate new HAFS components including the storm-following nest, which allows scientists to zoom in to see higher detail, including small-scale features, in the hurricane’s core and makes real-time, high resolution forecasting of hurricanes possible. 

Other improvements include observation-based physics, and an ocean-atmosphere coupler, which enables the ocean and atmosphere to interact with each other in the model. HRD is continuously working to upgrade HAFS, with these new components being incorporated into the model to improve forecasts each year. The newest version of HAFS, which went operational on August 1, is expected to improve forecasts of rapid intensification, defined as an increase of maximum wind speed of 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours, by 5-7%.

Simulation of global nests in the FV3 model.
Simulation of global nests in the HAFS FV3 model. Image credit: NOAA


While hurricane forecasters use the upgraded, operational version of HAFS, the foundation for future upgrades is being laid through experimental innovation. This season, researchers will be running experimental versions of HAFS, including the HAFS Multi-storm Model. This version of the model allows researchers to see forecasts for multiple tropical cyclones at the same time and understand and predict how they affect each other.

AOML scientists are ready to conduct their research during the 2025 hurricane season, with the intention of improving the accuracy of hurricane forecasts that protect lives, minimize damage, and strengthen the U.S. economy.

 
 

 

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