Tag: Sang-Ki Lee

New study finds a potential predictor for long-range US tornado forecasts

Tornadoes are among the deadliest and costliest natural disasters in the United States and are one of the hardest to predict. In December 2021, the most destructive winter tornado outbreak, known as the Quad-State Tornado Outbreak, caused 89 fatalities, 672 injuries, and at least $3.9 billion in property damages. Scientists at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) investigated this outbreak and found that it occurred under an exceptionally strong and prolonged negative Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, which created favorable conditions for tornado outbreaks.

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A very active 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: this satellite image shows three tropical storms - Katia, Irma and Jose - churning in the Atlantic at the same time. Image credit: NOAA.

Scientists at AOML Discover Atlantic Niño Fuels the Most Intense and Destructive Tropical Cyclones 

Scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) found that Atlantic Niño, the Atlantic counterpart of the Pacific El Niño, increases the formation of tropical cyclones off the coast of West Africa, also known as Cape (Cabo) Verde hurricanes. The study published in Nature Communications is the first to investigate the links between Atlantic Niño/Niña and seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and the associated physical mechanisms.

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NOAA Scientists Publish a New River Chemistry and Discharge Dataset for U.S. Rivers

A new river chemistry and discharge dataset for U.S. coasts has been released. A recent publication by scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), Northern Gulf Institute (NGI), and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) provides a river chemistry and discharge dataset for 140 U.S. rivers along the West, East, and Gulf of Mexico coasts, based on historical records from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This dataset will be very useful for regional ocean biogeochemical modeling and carbon chemistry studies. 

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NOAA Scientists Detect a Reshaping of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Southern Ocean

Scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) have shown that the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation (GMOC), commonly known as the global ocean conveyor belt, has changed significantly in the Southern Ocean since the mid-1970s, with a broadening and strengthening of the upper overturning cell and a contraction and weakening of the lower cell. These changes are attributed to human induced ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere and increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The study also shows that the changes in the Southern Ocean are slowly advancing into the South Atlantic and Indo-Pacific oceans.

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A map showing the sea surface temperatures around the globe. A strong El Nino is shown in dark red in the Pacific Ocean.

NOAA AOML Scientists Project Future Changes in ENSO Variability

In a new study published in Nature Communications, scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) investigate the projected changes in the seasonal evolution of El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the 21st century under the influence of increasing greenhouse gases. The study found that global climate impacts on temperature and precipitation are projected to become more significant and persistent, due to the larger amplitude and extended persistence of El Niño in the second half of the 21st Century (2051-2100).

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A satellite image showing the murky brown water of the Mississippi River plume mixing with the dark blue water of the Gulf two days after a rainstorm. Image Credit: NASA’s MODIS

River Runoff Creates a Buffer Zone for Ocean Acidification in the Gulf of Mexico

A new study by scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and Northern Gulf Institute (NGI) has revealed the alkalinity of river runoff to be a crucial factor for slowing the pace of ocean acidification along the Gulf of Mexico’s northern coast. This valuable, first-time finding may be indicative of ocean carbon chemistry patterns for other U.S. coastal areas significantly connected to rivers.

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An Experimental Outlook Model Shows a Useful Skill for Predicting Seasonal US Tornado Activity

A new paper published in Monthly Weather Review shows some promise for predicting subseasonal to seasonal tornado activity based on how key atmospheric parameters over the US respond to various climate signals, including El Niño and La Niña activity in the Pacific. In this study, a team of researchers from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Climate Prediction Center presented an experimental seasonal tornado outlook model, named SPOTter (Seasonal Probabilistic Outlook for Tornadoes), and evaluated its prediction skill.

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AOML and SEFSC Researchers Embark on a New Collaborative Effort to Understand the Impacts of Climate on Economically Important Fish Species

NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program is funding a new collaborative project between the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) to understand how a changing climate might be influencing commercially important fish stocks. This project will identify key climate and oceanic processes that affect the biology and chemistry of the ocean of relevance to the coastal open ocean species in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic Bight, managed by NOAA Fisheries and the regional Fishery Management Councils.

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