A 12-year collaboration between NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has culminated in a renewal of an Implementing Arrangement (IA) on Technical Cooperation in Development of Tropical Cyclone Numerical Weather Prediction System for the Indian Seas, which paves the way for advances in severe weather modeling. […]
In May 2024, representatives from the Hurricane Modeling Team at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) hosted a Summer Colloquium focused on equipping the next generation of hurricane scientists with a knowledge base of the HAFS model.
With an active hurricane season on the horizon, the need for reliable hurricane forecasting is at the forefront of our minds. Heightened sea surface temperatures, weakened vertical wind shear, and an enhanced West African monsoon are expected to contribute to the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. To predict these developing storms, meteorologists employ models that rely on current observations and mathematical calculations to predict a storm’s behavior and track. These models are complex and utilize inputs from a variety of sources including historic, numeric, oceanic, and atmospheric data to generate their predictions.
Improvements in the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model paved the way for tropical cyclone prediction and modeling by lowering intensity forecast errors by 45-50%.
