Tag: hurricane forecasts

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Measurements Influence the National Hurricane Center’s Decision to Upgrade Now Tropical Storm Laura

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Tropical Depression 13 to Tropical Storm Laura after yesterday morning’s reconnaissance mission confirmed gale-force surface winds within Laura’s vortex. AOML scientists provided remote support for onboard Tail Doppler Radar and dropsonde data processing and continue to do so for upcoming missions into the system.

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AOML Supports the Deployment of Drifting Buoys Ahead of Tropical Storm Isaias

AOML scientists partnered with the U.S. Air Force 53rd Reconnaissance Squadron “Hurricane Hunters” to deploy eight drifting buoys in advance of Tropical Storm Isaias on August 3, 2020 off the Carolina coast, in collaboration with the National Weather Service (NWS), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

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NOAA Hurricane Model Performance is Evaluated for the First Time in Predicting Rainfall from 2017 Hurricane Harvey

A recent study published in the journal Atmosphere evaluated for the first time, how well NOAA’s regional hurricane model was able to forecast the location and amount of devastating rainfall in 2017’s Hurricane Harvey. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model predicted the realistic total rainfall and the location of the maximum rainfall of Hurricane Harvey, which were the most devastating impacts of the storm’s landfall in coastal Texas.

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Modeling Michael: Using NOAA’s HFV3 to predict rapid intensification in Hurricane Michael

In a recently published study, AOML hurricane researchers used multiple computer model forecasts to gain a better understanding of how Hurricane Michael, which made landfall in the panhandle of Florida with winds up to 162 mph, rapidly intensified despite strong upper-level wind shear which usually weakens hurricanes. By contrasting two sets of forecasts, the study found that Michael only rapidly intensified when rainfall completely surrounded Michael’s center, and when the eye of the storm itself was located in nearly the same place at different heights.

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