Hurricane scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory have created a new, advanced moving nest model within the Unified Forecast System, the bedrock of NOAA’s weather prediction applications . AOML’s Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Team developed the high resolution moving nest model for the FV3 dynamical core, laying the foundation for next generation advancements in hurricane forecasting.
Originally Published January 25th, 2021 at NOAA.Gov
“We’re hopeful this new technology, once it can be successfully tested in a hurricane environment, will improve our understanding of the boundary layer and advance NOAA forecast models used in forecasts,” said Joseph Cione, lead meteorologist at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Research Division. “Ultimately, these new observations could help emergency managers make informed decisions on evacuations before tropical cyclones make landfall.”
NOAA Hurricane Hunters continue reconnaissance for Tropical Storm Eta, which threatens to bring tropical cyclone hazards to south Florida as it restrengthens over water.
Tasked by the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC), NOAA’s P-3 and G-IV aircraft have conducted reconnaissance for Tropical Storm Eta. Missions are scheduled to proceed through the weekend.
A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters looks at the relationship between how fast a tropical cyclone intensifies and the amount of ice in the clouds that make up the storm. Hurricane scientists found that tropical cyclones with greater amounts of cloud ice are likely to intensify faster than those with less cloud ice.
New Study Looks at How Different Techniques to Model the Hurricane Boundary Layer Can Improve Forecasts
In a new study published in Atmosphere, hurricane scientists looked at how turbulent mixing in the boundary layer affects the intensity and structure of hurricanes in NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model. They found that turbulent mixing affects where thunderstorms in hurricanes occur, and how fast air flows towards the center of a storm.
NOAA concludes Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) tasked reconnaissance for Major Hurricane Delta on October 9. The P-3 aircraft took off from Lakeland, FL at 5:00 AM EDT to survey the system’s circulation.
A new study published in Meteorological Applications finds that changes in the flight track patterns of aircraft flying into storms to collect observations for weather forecast models could positively impact forecasts. Differences in where data is collected within a storm changes the model forecast.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters continue around the clock monitoring of Hurricane Delta as it traverses the Gulf of Mexico. Overnight flights on October 7 through midday October 8 found that Delta’s circulation is intensifying and expanding in size.
NOAA aircraft reconnaissance continued for Major Hurricane Delta on October 6, capturing the system’s quick maturation overnight. P-3 and G-IV missions are scheduled every 12 and 24 hours from Lakeland, FL. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) tasked NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters to identify the location and strength of the circulation center, and to survey the atmospheric conditions nearby and ahead of Delta. Instrumentation onboard the aircraft have sampled the system’s development, revealing a 55 knot rapid intensification in just 24 hours.