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Paper on what led to the very uncertain forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin in 2015 published in Weather and Forecasting

Summary:  During the 2015 North Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Joaquin meandered near the Bahamas.  Forecasts ranged from bringing Joaquin inland over the U.S. to it going east of Bermuda, suggesting that Joaquin’s track was very uncertain (Fig. 1).  A high-resolution forecast model based on NOAA’s hurricane prediction system, the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) […]

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