Category: Uncategorized

Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This paper shows that correctly representing the details of processes in model physics schemes can lead to big forecast skill improvement (up to 10 kt).  The large number of cases provide confidence in the results.  Summary: The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is the lowest part of the atmosphere, typically within about 1 km of the Earth’s surface. […]

Study showing how tropical cyclone track and intensity varies in very short time periods in models published in Monthly Weather Review

Large fluctuations in track and intensity are found in 3⅓-second output from NOAA’s operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model. Track varied by an average of 6-8 km, and intensity by up to 20 kt (23 mph) on these short time scales. Soothing these fluctuations led to up to a 8% improvement in forecasts. For […]

Hurricane Field Programs gears up to fly Sam, recaps missions so far this year

All three NOAA heavy aircraft are deploying to St. Croix today in preparation for missions into what is now Tropical Storm Sam. AOML/HRD plans to collaborate with the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification (TCRI) field campaign to fly P-3 and G-IV aircraft missions into Hurricane Sam in the central North Atlantic. The […]

Study on the best way to improve forecasts using a proposed satellite-based Doppler Wind Lidar published in Monthly Weather Review

This study investigates how to get the largest improvements to tropical cyclone forecasts from wind profiles obtained from a proposed new instrument, a Doppler Wind Lidar, on polar-orbiting satellites.  Wind profiles have the largest impact when the tropical cyclone’s structure was changing rapidly and when the measurements were taken close to the tropical cyclone center. […]

Study on small-scale vortices near the surface in tropical cyclones published in Scientific Reports

The full paper can be accessed at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-97766-7.pdf. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.Jie Tang and Xiaotu Lei were supported by the Key Program for International S&T Cooperation Projects of China (No. 2017YFE0107700), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41475060 and 41775065) and the ESCAP/WMO EXOTICCA Project. Jun Zhang was supported by NOAA grant NA19OAR0220186 [...]

Saildrone observations of Atlantic Hurricanes to Improve Intensity forecasts

Improving the accuracy and ultimate value of  NOAA’s operational hurricane forecasts requires more complete real-time knowledge of atmospheric and oceanic conditions and more realistic representation of key physical processes in forecast models. To meet these needs, a research team from NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) deployed five saildrones […]

Study showing the impact of turbulence in computer forecasts of hurricanes published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary:  Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind.  It is important in tropical cyclones because turbulence in the lowest 1-2 km of the atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) and in clouds affects tropical cyclone intensity and structural change. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast the weather, including tropical cyclones.  These […]

Study on how to improve model forecasts of the region closest to the ocean surface published in The Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Summary:  Turbulence is made up of random and continuously changing wind.  It is important in tropical cyclones (TCs) because turbulence in the lowest 1-2 km of the free atmosphere (the planetary boundary layer or PBL) affects TC intensity and structural change. Meteorologists use computer models to forecast the weather, including TCs. These models forecast the […]