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Paper describing a new forecast model that follows multiple tropical cyclones at the same time published in The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Forecast models that follow individual tropical cyclones (TCs), like NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model, have contributed to significant improvement of intensity forecasts for over a decade.  The original HWRF could only follow one TC, but recent advances allow individual multiple nests to follow more than one TC.  This is the first time […]

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Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled highlighted in EOS

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Read the highlight at https://eos.org/editor-highlights/hurricane-forecast-improvement-with-better-turbulent-processes. Read more about this study at https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2021/09/30/study-on-improving-tropical-cyclone-forecasts-by-improving-the-way-turbulence-near-the-surface-is-modeled-published-in-the-journal-of-geophysical-research/. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.

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Study on historical Saharan dust outbreaks from rainfall and sedimentary rocks published in The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

In June 2020, one of the largest Saharan dust outbreaks on record overspread the North Atlantic, eventually bringing dry, dusty air to much of the southeastern U.S.  This study used chemical analysis of rainfall from several U.S. stations to detect various forms of lead associated with Saharan dust before, during, and after this record-breaking event.  […]

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Study of the surface inflow into tropical cyclones from Synthetic Aperture Radar published in Geophysical Research Letters

This study developed a model to investigate tropical cyclone (TC) surface-wind inflow angle asymmetry. The model has been applied to 130 spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images over a large variety of TCs. This model can detect the asymmetric surface-wind structure and the associated inflow angles, and other standard information such as center locations, symmetrical […]

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HRD Monthly Science Meeting of October 2021

October’s science meeting consisted of six presentations: Xiaomin Chen: A Framework for Simulating the Tropical-Cyclone Boundary Layer Using Large-Eddy Simulation Sim Aberson: Sally:  An Aborted Attempt to Form an Aligned Vortex? Kathryn Sellwood: Assimilation of Coyote Observations with HWRF GSI Jon Zawislak: Summary of NASA’s CPEX-AW Field Campaign Lisa Bucci: Comparison of Aeolus Observations to NOAA Dropsondes Kyle Ahern: How were […]

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HRD Monthly Science Meeting of August 2021

August’s science meeting consisted of two presentations: Stanley Goldenberg – “NOAA’s August Update of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Methodology & Forecast”  Tomislava Vukicevic – “Sensitivity of microphysics parameterization to stochastically perturbed parameters” Copies of the two presentations are available on the anonymous ftp site at: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/blog/meetings/2021/Science/HRD_SciMeet_20210812.zip

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NOAA completes aircraft investigations into Hurricane Sam

The two NOAA P-3 aircraft, along with the NOAA G-IV, are returning to Lakeland today after 6 days in the Caribbean flying into and around Hurricane Sam, the strongest storm in the Atlantic so far this year. The aim of these collaborative missions between AOML/HRD and the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification (TCRI) field […]

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Study on improving tropical cyclone forecasts by improving the way turbulence near the surface is modeled published in the Journal of Geophysical Research

This paper shows that correctly representing the details of processes in model physics schemes can lead to big forecast skill improvement (up to 10 kt).  The large number of cases provide confidence in the results.  Summary: The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is the lowest part of the atmosphere, typically within about 1 km of the Earth’s surface. […]

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