Tag: hurricane forecasting

September 22: Reddit Science AMA with NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters

With hurricane season in full swing, NOAA will host a Reddit Ask Me Anything (AMA) about the Science of Hurricane Hunting to Improve Forecasts on September 22, 2016 at 1:00 p.m. Hurricane scientist Frank Marks, Sc.D., Director of the Hurricane Research Division at AOML, and P-3 hurricane hunter pilot Commander Justin Kibbey of the NOAA Corps will answer questions. The first half of hurricane season has produced a significant number of storms in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. This AMA is a great opportunity to answer questions about how and why we study these storms.

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AL99 (left) and Gaston (right) observed in the Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA

Capturing the Genesis of a Hurricane

NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying back-to-back missions to study the newly developed Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico, capturing its evolution from a cluster of thunderstorms into a tropical storm. Getting data during such transitions can help improve hurricane models which currently don’t predict transitions well. Our understanding of the physical processes of early storm development remains limited, largely because there are few observations. 

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NOAA aircraft will fly into hurricanes and collect data to improve forecasting. Image Credit: NOAA

From the Eye of the Hurricane to High-Resolution Models – How NOAA Improves Hurricane Forecasts

As a hurricane approaches landfall, citizens are hoping that they are adequately prepared for the potential damage from strong winds and rising oceans. NOAA’s job is to forecast the storm location and strength, or intensity, to help communities make the best informed decisions. For many scientists, predicting intensity is a challenge at the forefront of hurricane research, and in recent years advancements in observations and modeling have improved NOAA’s forecasts of intensity by 20%. We are now at the point where scientists can observe and predict with very fine detail what is happening in the inner core of the storm.

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A satellite image taken of Hurricane Katrina at peak intensity in the Gulf of Mexico on August 28, 2005. Image credit: NOAA

10th Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina

Early on the morning of August 29th, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the Louisiana delta region and the Mississippi coast.  The storm surge brought enormous damage to the Gulf Coast and, when the levees around New Orleans failed, a great number of fatalities.  Coming amidst the very busy 2005 hurricane season, Katrina brought death and destruction not seen in a U.S. land-falling hurricane in decades.

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Above the clouds sunset from tropical storm Erika in 2015. Photo Credit, NOAA AOML.

Behind the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Wind Shear & Tropical Cyclones

With the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season underway, researchers are pointing to the strong presence of El Niño as the major driver suppressing the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. But what specific conditions are associated with El Niño that lead to a less than ideal environment for tropical cyclone development? Through research and observation, hurricane researchers know strong environmental wind shear is a major factor affecting potential hurricane development and growth. This hurricane season, AOML researchers are delving further into the relationship between wind shear and tropical cyclones.

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NASA's Global Hawk aircraft will carry multiple instruments to profile hurricanes during the 2015 field season. (Image Credit:NOAA)

Hurricane Danny & Tropical Storm Erika Provide Wealth of Research Opportunities for the 2015 Hurricane Field Program

AOML’s hurricane researchers conducted a number of field activities in August that provided data and critical insights into two Atlantic tropical cyclones, Danny and Erika. The two storms enabled researchers to test new instruments in support of the 2015 Hurricane Field Program and conduct research that will benefit future forecasts. Among the highlights were more than 15 successful manned and unmanned aircraft missions into Danny and Erika to collect and provide real-time data to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), as well as evaluate forecast models.

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NASA's Global Hawk and the flight pattern created by AOML hurricane researchers to observer Hurricane Edouard. Image credit: NASA

Atlantic Hurricane Season Remains Quiet As Predicted

The Atlantic hurricane season will officially end November 30, and will be remembered as a relatively quiet season as was predicted. Still, the season afforded NOAA scientists with opportunities to produce new forecast products, showcase successful modeling advancements, and conduct research to benefit future forecasts.

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NASA's Global Hawk headed away from NASA's Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Va. on Sept. 19, 2012 and headed to investigate Tropical Storm Nadine near the Azores Islands in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Global Hawks are part of the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission. Credit: NASA Wallops

Hurricane Researchers Achieve Important Milestones Despite Quiet 2013 Season

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ended on November 30th, will be noted in the record books as having been a relatively quiet year with the fewest hurricanes since 1982. In fact, it will be ranked as the sixth least-active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950. Despite this, the 2013 season was quite an active […]

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