In a new study published in Nature Communications, scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) investigate the projected changes in the seasonal evolution of El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the 21st century under the influence of increasing greenhouse gases. The study found that global climate impacts on temperature and precipitation are projected to become more significant and persistent, due to the larger amplitude and extended persistence of El Niño in the second half of the 21st Century (2051-2100).
A new paper published in Monthly Weather Review shows some promise for predicting subseasonal to seasonal tornado activity based on how key atmospheric parameters over the US respond to various climate signals, including El Niño and La Niña activity in the Pacific. In this study, a team of researchers from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Climate Prediction Center presented an experimental seasonal tornado outlook model, named SPOTter (Seasonal Probabilistic Outlook for Tornadoes), and evaluated its prediction skill.
AOML and SEFSC Researchers Embark on a New Collaborative Effort to Understand the Impacts of Climate on Economically Important Fish Species
NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program is funding a new collaborative project between the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) to understand how a changing climate might be influencing commercially important fish stocks. This project will identify key climate and oceanic processes that affect the biology and chemistry of the ocean of relevance to the coastal open ocean species in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic Bight, managed by NOAA Fisheries and the regional Fishery Management Councils.
The Unprecedented Reduction and Quick Recovery of the South Indian Ocean Heat Content and Sea Level in 2014-2018
In a recent study published in Science Advances, a team of scientists at AOML led by Denis Volkov used observations and idealized model simulations to explore what caused the abrupt reduction and ensuing recovery of the South Indian Ocean heat and sea level in 2014-2018.
In a new article published in the Journal of Climate, scientists at AOML and the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Science, with collaborators at Boston University, Texas A&M, and North Carolina State University, document the role of ocean dynamics in linking Pacific atmospheric variability to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event generation. The results of the study could be used as a potential predictor of ENSO events up to a year in advance.
Despite their differences, it is still widely thought that Atlantic Niño is analogous to El Niño in many ways. Specifically, the atmosphere-ocean feedback responsible for the onset of Atlantic Niño is believed to be similar to that of El Niño, a process known as Bjerknes feedback. The near-surface trade winds blow steadily from east to west along the equator. When weaker-than-normal trade winds develop in the western Atlantic basin, downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate to the eastern basin, deepening the thermocline and making it harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface.
A new study published in the journal Nature Microbiology highlights how emerging, devastating outbreaks of Vibrio infection in Latin America might be linked to El Niño, a climate pattern that periodically causes surface temperatures to warm throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean. A researcher with the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute of Marine & Atmospheric Studies at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Lab was part of an international research team that used microbiological, genomic, and bioinformatic tools to demonstrate how El Niño provides a mechanism for the transport of disease from Asia into the Americas.
Tornadoes are one of nature’s most destructive forces. Recent violent and widespread tornado outbreaks in the United States, such as occurred in the spring of 2011, have caused significant loss of life and property. Currently, our capacity to predict tornadoes and other severe weather risks does not extend beyond seven days. Extending severe weather outlooks beyond seven days will assist emergency managers, businesses, and the public prepare the resources needed to prevent economic losses and protect communities. So how can scientists better predict when and where tornadoes are likely to strike, before the tornado season begins?
With the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season underway, researchers are pointing to the strong presence of El Niño as the major driver suppressing the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. But what specific conditions are associated with El Niño that lead to a less than ideal environment for tropical cyclone development? Through research and observation, hurricane researchers know strong environmental wind shear is a major factor affecting potential hurricane development and growth. This hurricane season, AOML researchers are delving further into the relationship between wind shear and tropical cyclones.
The earth is warming, but temperatures in the atmosphere and at the sea surface that steadily rose in the last half-century have leveled off and slowed in the past decade, causing the appearance of an imbalance in Earth’s heat budget. Scientists are looking into the deep ocean to determine where this additional heat energy could be stored, and recently traced a pathway that leads to the Indian Ocean.