A 12-year collaboration between NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has culminated in a renewal of an Implementing Arrangement (IA) on Technical Cooperation in Development of Tropical Cyclone Numerical Weather Prediction System for the Indian Seas, which paves the way for advances in severe weather modeling. The IA covers cyclone-specific work under a broader NOAA-MoES Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The IA fosters joint research to improve tropical cyclone forecasts, as well as a commitment to augment the newest severe weather model – the Indian Ocean-Land Atmosphere model (IOLA) – throughout its years of use.
This collaborative cyclone forecast model is a shining example of how life-saving advancements can be made through scientific rigor and partnerships. It was developed by scientists at AOML in collaboration with MoES and academic partners at the University of Texas-Austin and the National Institute of Technology-Rourkela.
Collaborations between AOML and MoES began in 2012 with a signed IA that led to the use of NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The HWRF model greatly improved tropical cyclone predictions over the Indian Seas, but was limited by its inability to forecast more than one hurricane at a time.
Fast forward 12 years to the development of the IOLA model, an enhanced version of HWRF that can simultaneously track and forecast multiple tropical cyclones in the same ocean basin. This multi-hurricane tracking advancement allows scientists to forecast concurrent severe weather events, ranging from extreme rainfall and thunderstorms to tropical cyclones.
During an 11-day workshop in April 2024, Sundararaman “Gopal” Gopalakrishnan, Ph.D., NOAA’s principal investigator for the IOLA project and architect of the IA, and Ghassan Alaka, Ph.D., a NOAA meteorologist, met with long-time collaborators in India. Their focus was transitioning the HWRF model to that of the IOLA model. This collaborative cyclone forecast model optimizes life-saving forecasts, especially for countries bordering the Indian Ocean.
Gopal and Alaka also met with Krishna Osuri, Ph.D., of the National Institute of Technology-Rourkela, India’s principal investigator for the IOLA project. They additionally met with M. Ravichandran, Ph.D., Secretary of the MoES, for an in-depth discussion on developing strategies for cooperative modeling to better understand land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere coupling. The exchange led to the extension of the MOU between AOML and MoES, ensuring continued collaboration on advancing strategies for tropical cyclone observations, refocusing efforts on the IOLA model and, most importantly, fostering the NOAA-MoES relationship to better understand extreme weather events in a changing world.
