Le Hénaff, M., Domingues, R., Halliwell, G., Zhang, J. A., Kim, H. S., Aristizabal, M., … & Goni, G. The role of the Gulf of Mexico ocean conditions in the intensification of Hurricane Michael (2018). Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, e2020JC016969.
Abstract: Hurricane Michael formed on October 7, 2018, in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, and quickly traveled northward through the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall on the Florida panhandle as a devastating Category 5 hurricane only 3 days later. Before landfall, Michael underwent rapid intensification, despite unfavorable atmospheric conditions. Using observations, we characterized the key ocean features encountered by Michael along its track, which are known for favoring hurricane intensification: high sea surface temperatures, upper ocean heat content and low salinity barrier layer conditions. Ocean observations were consistent with suppressed hurricane-induced upper ocean cooling, which could only be observed by underwater gliders, and showed that Hurricane Michael constantly experienced sea surface temperatures above 28°C…
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Domingues, R., Le Hénaff, M., Halliwell, G., Zhang, J. A., Bringas, F., Chardon, P., … & Goni, G. (2021). Ocean Conditions and the Intensification of Three Major Atlantic Hurricanes in 2017. Monthly Weather Review, 149(5), 1265-1286.
Major Atlantic hurricanes Irma, Jose, and Maria of 2017 reached their peak intensity in September while traveling over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, where both atmospheric and ocean conditions were favorable for intensification. In situ and satellite ocean observations revealed that conditions in these areas exhibited (i) sea surface temperatures above 28°C, (ii) upper-ocean heat content above 60 kJ cm−2, and (iii) the presence of low-salinity barrier layers associated with a larger-than-usual extension of the Amazon and Orinoco riverine plumes. Proof-of-concept coupled ocean–hurricane numerical model experiments demonstrated that the accurate representation of such ocean conditions led to an improvement in the simulated intensity of Hurricane Maria for the 3 days preceding landfall in Puerto Rico, when compared to an experiment without the assimilation of ocean observations…..
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Halliwell Jr, G. R., Goni, G. J., Mehari, M. F., Kourafalou, V. H., Baringer, M., & Atlas, R. (2020). OSSE Assessment of Underwater Glider Arrays to Improve Ocean Model Initialization for Tropical Cyclone Prediction. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 37(3), 467-487.
Abstract: Credible tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction by coupled models requires accurate forecasts of enthalpy flux from ocean to atmosphere, which in turn requires accurate forecasts of sea surface temperature cooling beneath storms. Initial ocean fields must accurately represent ocean mesoscale features and the associated thermal and density structure. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are performed to quantitatively assess the impact of assimilating profiles collected from multiple underwater gliders deployed over the western North Atlantic Ocean TC region, emphasizing advantages gained by profiling from moving versus stationary platforms. Assimilating ocean profiles collected repeatedly at fixed locations produces large root-mean-square error reduction only within ~50 km of each profiler for two primary reasons…
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Dong, J.,R. Domingues, G. Goni, G. Halliwell, H.-S. Kim, S.-K. Lee, M. Mehari, F. Bringas, J. Morell, and L. Pomales, 2017: Impact of assimilating underwater glider data on Hurricane Gonzalo (2014) forecast. /Weather and Forecasting/, 32(3):1143-1159*, *(doi:10.1175/WAF-D-16-0182.1).
Abstract: The initialization of ocean conditions is essential to coupled tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts. This study investigates the impact of ocean observations assimilation, particularly underwater glider data, on high-resolution coupled TC forecasts. Using the coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) – Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) system, numerical experiments are performed by assimilating underwater glider observations alone and with other standard ocean observations for the forecast of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014). The glider observations are able to provide valuable information on sub-surface ocean thermal and saline structure, even with their limited spatial coverage along the storm track and relatively small amount of data assimilated…