Who We Are
The genesis, path, and intensity of Atlantic Ocean hurricanes are linked to atmospheric and ocean conditions. During the last 20 years, the improvements of hurricane intensity forecasts, and in particular of rapid intensification, have lagged behind those of hurricane track forecasts.
In general, when the appropriate atmospheric conditions (e.g. low wind shear or change of wind velocity with height) are present, hurricanes have the potential to intensify when a ocean conditions are optimal to provide heat energy. Studies have shown that hurricane models that incorporate ocean temperature and salinity data from the upper hundred meters of the ocean have more accurate intensity forecasts. For example, ocean features with high heat content and/or low salinity values may create conditions that are appropriate for hurricane intensification. The correct representation of these ocean features is key to improving hurricane intensification guidance. Our team of scientists, engineers, pilots and data specialists make this research possible.
Gustavo Goni (Principal Investigator), Ricardo Domingues, Francis Bringas, Grant Rawson, Ulisses Rivero, Patrick Halsall, Zachary Barton, Diego Ugaz.
What We Do
The goal of this work is to enhance our understanding of air-sea interaction processes during hurricane force wind events. In order to accomplish this goal, a pilot network of hurricane underwater gliders is implemented to:
- Assess the impact of hurricane force winds on upper ocean density structure, and
- Assess the impact of ocean profile data from underwater gliders in operational hurricane intensity forecasts
Video: Gliding Into Hurricane Intensity Forecasts
Additionally, data for each dive by each underwater gliders is in NetCDF format and updated every 6 hours in the FTP link below.
*Please acknowledge as follows: Underwater glider data provided by NOAA/AOML as part of the NOAA funded “Sustained and Targeted Ocean Observations for Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Hurricane Seasonal Forecasts” Project
Photos from the Field
Impact of Assimilating Underwater Glider Data on Hurricane Gonzalo (2014) Forecast
Abstract: The initialization of ocean conditions is essential to coupled tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts. This study investigates the impact of ocean observations assimilation, particularly underwater glider data, on high-resolution coupled TC forecasts. Using the coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) – Hybrid CoordinateOcean Model (HYCOM) system, numerical experiments are performed by assimilating underwater glider observations alone and with other standard ocean observations for the forecast of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014). The glider observations are able to provide valuable information on sub-surface ocean thermal and saline structure, even with their limited spatial coverage along the storm track and relatively small amount of data assimilated. Through the assimilation of underwater glider observations, the pre-storm thermal and saline structures of initial upper ocean conditions are significantly improved near the location of glider observations, though the impact is localized due to the limited coverage of glider data. The ocean initial conditions are best represented when both the standard ocean observations and the underwater glider data are assimilated together. The barrier layer and the associated sharp density gradient in the upper ocean are successfully represented in the ocean initial conditions only with the use of underwater glider observations. The upper ocean temperature and salinity forecasts in the first 48 hours are improved by assimilating both underwater glider and standard ocean observations. The assimilation of glider observations alone does not make large impact on the intensity forecast due to their limited coverage along the storm track. The 126-hour intensity forecast of Hurricane Gonzalo is improved 45 moderately through assimilating both underwater glider data and standard ocean observations.
July 25, 2019
Publications & References
Click to Expand ListDomingues, R., Kuwano-Yoshida, A., Chardon-Maldonado, P., Todd, R. E., Halliwell, G., …, Goni, G. (2019), Ocean Observations in Support of Studies and Forecasts of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones, under review at Frontiers in Marine Science, in press.
Domingues, R., Goni, G.J., Knaff, J.A., Lin, I.-I., and Bringas, F. (2019), The tropics- Tropical cyclone heat potential. In State of the Climate in 2018, J. Blunden, D.S. Arndt, and G. Hartfield (eds.). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press.
Goni, G.J., Knaff, J.A., Lin, I.-I., and Domingues, R., 2018: The tropics-Tropical cyclone heat potential. In State of the Climate in 2017, J. Blunden, D.S. Arndt, and G. Hartfield (eds.). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99(8):S129-S132 (doi:10.1175/2018BAMSStateoftheClimate.1). Read Report.
Dong, J.,R. Domingues, G. Goni, G. Halliwell, H.-S. Kim, S.-K. Lee, M. Mehari, F. Bringas, J. Morell, and L. Pomales, 2017: Impact of assimilating underwater glider data on Hurricane Gonzalo (2014) forecast. Weather and Forecasting, 32(3):1143-1159, (doi:10.1175/WAF-D-16-0182.1). Read Paper.
Goni, G. J., R. E. Todd, S. R. Jayne, G. Halliwell, S. Glenn, J. Dong, R. Curry, R. Domingues, F. Bringas, L. Centurioni, S. F. DiMarco, T. Miles, J. Morell, L. Pomales, H.-S. Kim, P. E. Robbins, G. G. Gawarkiewicz, J. Wilkin, J. Heiderich, B. Baltes, J. J. Cione, G. Seroka, K. Knee, and E. R. Sanabia, 2017: Autonomous and Lagrangian Ocean Observations for Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Studies and Forecasts. Journal of the Oceanography Society, 30(2):85-95, (doi:10.5670/oceanog.2017.227). Read Article.
Domingues, R ., G. Goni, F. Bringas, S.-K. Lee, H-S Kim, G. Halliwell, J. Dong, J. Morell, and L. Pomales, 2015: Upper ocean response to Hurricane Gonzalo (2014): Salinity effects revealed by sustained and targeted observations from underwater gliders. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(17):7131-7138, (doi:10.1002/2015GL065378). Read Paper.
Goni, G. J., J. A. Knaff, and I-I Lin, 2015: [Global Oceans] Tropical cyclone heat potential [in “State of the Climate in 2014”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, (7), S121-S122,. Read Report.
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History of the Project
| Gustavo Goni, Ph.D.
If you would like more information on the this project, please contact Gustavo Goni, Principal Investigator of this project.