Andrew Hazelton

Research Highlights

October 5, 2022

Analyzing Hurricane Dorian Track Forecast Uncertainties

Research Interests

Tropical cyclone intensity change.

Tropical cyclone forecasting.

Numerical modeling.

Model/observation comparisons.

Andrew Hazelton, Ph.D.

Associate Scientist (University of Miami/CIMAS), Hurricane Research Division

305.361.4317

Andrew.Hazelton@noaa.gov

Andrew_Hazelton

4301 Rickenbacker Causeway
Miami, Florida 33149

“I enjoy meteorology because weather affects everyone, and there’s always so much to learn. Growing up in Florida, I experienced several hurricanes, and it thrills me to be able to study and analyze them in my career.”

About

Dr. Andrew Hazelton is involved with the Hurricane Research Division Modeling Team, working on the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). He received his Ph.D. from Florida State University in 2016, then spent two years as a postdoc at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory and Princeton University before coming to AOML/CIMAS. Andrew enjoys researching tropical cyclones using numerical models like HAFS, and also observations like those collected in HRD’s field program.

Current Work & CV

Current Work

Current work involves development and evaluation of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), including doing real-time runs, evaluating models through comparison with observations, and improving model physics.

View Full CV

Education

2016, Ph.D., Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

2013, M.S., Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

2011, B.S., Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

Publications

Alvey, G.R. III, G.J. Alaka Jr., L. Gramer, and A. Hazelton. Evaluation of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) error statistics stratified by internal structure and environmental metrics. Weather and Forecasting, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-24-0030.1 2024
Ref. 4462
Bower, E., K.A. Reed, G.J. Alaka Jr., and A.T. Hazelton. Verification of operational forecast models in cases of extratropical transition of North Atlantic hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting, 39(11):1695-1714, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-24-0011.1 2024
Ref. 4466
Hazelton, A., X. Chen, G.J. Alaka Jr., G.R. Alvey III, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F.D. Marks. Sensitivity of HAFS-B tropical cyclone forecasts to planetary boundary layer and microphysics parameterizations. Weather and Forecasting, 39(4):655-678, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0124.1 2024
Ref. 4389

View all Related Publications

Alvey, G.R. III, G.J. Alaka Jr., L. Gramer, and A. Hazelton. Evaluation of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) error statistics stratified by internal structure and environmental metrics. Weather and Forecasting, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-24-0030.1 2024
Ref. 4462
Bower, E., K.A. Reed, G.J. Alaka Jr., and A.T. Hazelton. Verification of operational forecast models in cases of extratropical transition of North Atlantic hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting, 39(11):1695-1714, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-24-0011.1 2024
Ref. 4466
Hazelton, A., X. Chen, G.J. Alaka Jr., G.R. Alvey III, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F.D. Marks. Sensitivity of HAFS-B tropical cyclone forecasts to planetary boundary layer and microphysics parameterizations. Weather and Forecasting, 39(4):655-678, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0124.1 2024
Ref. 4389
Kim, H.-S., B. Liu, B. Thomas, D. Rosen, W. Wang, A. Hazelton, Z. Zhang, X. Zhang, and A. Mehra. Ocean component of the first operational version of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Evaluation of HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and hurricane feedback forecasts. Frontiers in Earth Science, 12:1399409, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1399409 2024
Ref. 4439
Wang, W., J. Han, J. Shin, X. Chen, A. Hazelton, L. Zhu, H.-S. Kim, X. Li, B. Liu, Q. Liu, J. Steffen, R. Sun, W. Zheng, Z. Zhang, and F. Yang. Physics schemes in the first version of NCEP operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). Frontiers in Earth Science, 12:1379069, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1379069 2024
Ref. 4416
Chen, X., A. Hazelton, F.D. Marks, G.J. Alaka, and C. Zhang. Performance of an improved TKE-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) PBL scheme in 2021 hurricane forecasts from Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. Weather and Forecasting, 38(2):321-336, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0140.1 2023
Ref. 4202
Hazelton, A., G.J. Alaka Jr., M. Fischer, R. Torn, and S. Gopalakrishnan. Factors influencing the track of Hurricane Dorian (2019) in the west Atlantic: Analysis of a HAFS ensemble. Monthly Weather Review, 151(1):175-192, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0112.1 2023
Ref. 4213
Hazelton, A., G.J. Alaka, Jr., L. Gramer, W. Ramstrom, S. Ditchek, X. Chen, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, L. Zhu, W. Wang, B. Thomas, J.H. Shin, C.-K. Wang, H.-S. Kim, X. Zhang, A. Mehra, F. Marks, and S. Gopalakrishnan. 2022 real-time hurricane forecasts from an experimental version of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFSV0.3S) Frontiers in Earth Science, 11:1264969, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1264969 2023
Ref. 4331
Poyer, A., W. Komaromi, S. Gopalakrishnan, L. Wolf, F. Marks, G. Alaka Jr., J. Anderson, V. Tallapragada, M. Brennan, A. Mehra, X. Zhang, Z. Zhang, A. Hazelton, D.A. Zelinsky, J.L. Franklin, A. Aksoy, C. Alexander, M. Bender, L. Bernardet, M. Biswas, J. Cangialosi, M. DeMaria, R. Dunlap, M. Ek, G. Eosco, L. Gramer, L. Harris, J.S. Hilderbrand, E. Kalina, H.-S. Kim, P. Kucera, B. Liu, P. McCaslin, T. Marchok, J. Moskaitis, K. Musgrave, L. Nance, K. Newman, M. Onderlinde, W. Ramstrom, D. Rosen, J. Sims, J. Sippel, D. Stern, R. Torn, X. Wang, W. Wang, Y. Weng, B.C. Zachry, C. Zhang, M. Zhang, and L. Zhu. 2021-2022 HFIP R&D activities summary: Recent results and operational implementation. HFIP Technical Report, HFIP-2023-1, 73 pp., https://doi.org/10.25923/exgj-1n68 2023
Ref. 4413
Stackhouse, S.D., S.E. Zick, C.J. Matyas, K.M. Wood, A.T. Hazelton, and G.J. Alaka Jr. Evaluation of experimental high-resolution model forecasts of tropical cyclone precipitation using object-based metrics. Weather and Forecasting, 38(10):2111-2134, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0223.1 2023
Ref. 4305
Alvey, G.R., and A. Hazelton. How do weak, misaligned tropical cyclones evolve toward alignment? A case study using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 127(10):e2022JD037268, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037268 2022
Ref. 4178
Chen, X., G.H. Bryan, A. Hazelton, F.D. Marks, and P. Fitzpatrick. Evaluation and improvement of TKE-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) planetary boundary layer scheme in hurricane conditions. Weather and Forecasting, 37(6):935-951, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0168.1 2022
Ref. 4094
Gramer, L.J., J.A. Zhang, G. Alaka, A. Hazelton, and S. Gopalakrishnan. Coastal downwelling intensifies landfalling hurricanes. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(13):e2021GL096630 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096630 2022
Ref. 4120
Hazelton, A., J.A. Zhang, and S.G. Gopalakrishnan. Comparison of the performance of the observation-based hybrid EDMF and EDMF-TKE PBL schemes in 2020 tropical cyclone forecasts from the Global-nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. Weather and Forecasting, 37(4):457-476, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0124.1 2022
Ref. 4078
Hazelton, A., K. Gao, M. Bender, L. Cowan, G.J. Alaka Jr., A. Kaltenbaugh, L. Gramer, X. Zhang, L. Harris, T. Marchok, M. Morin, A. Mehra, Z. Zhang, B. Liu, and F. Marks. Performance of 2020 real-time Atlantic hurricane forecasts from high-resolution global-nested hurricane models: HAFS-globalnest and GFDL T-SHiELD. Weather and Forecasting, 37(1):143-161, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0102.1 2022
Ref. 4041
Zawislak, J., R.F. Rogers, S.D. Aberson, G.J. Alaka, G. Alvey, A. Aksoy, L. Bucci, J. Cione, N. Dorst, J. Dunion, M. Fischer, J. Gamache, S. Gopalakrishnan, A. Hazelton, H.M. Holbach, J. Kaplan, H. Leighton, F. Marks, S.T. Murillo, P. Reasor, K. Ryan, K. Sellwood, J.A. Sippel, and J.A. Zhang. Accomplishments of NOAA’S airborne hurricane field program and a broader future approach to forecast improvement. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(2):E311-E338, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0174.1 2022
Ref. 3984
Gopalakrishnan, S., A. Hazelton, and J.A. Zhang. Improving hurricane boundary layer parameterization scheme based on observations. Earth and Space Science, 8(3):e2020EA001422 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001422 2021
Ref. 3942
Hazelton, A., G. Alaka, L. Cowan, M. Fischer, and S. Gopalakrishnan. Understanding the processes causing the early intensification of Hurricane Dorian through an ensemble of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). Atmosphere, 12(1):93, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010093 2021
Ref. 3915
Hazelton, A., Z. Zhang, B. Liu, J. Dong, G. Alaka, W. Wang, T. Matchok, A. Menra, S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, M. Bender, V. Tallapragada, and F. Marks. 2019 Atlantic hurricane forecasts from the Global-Nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS): Composite statistics and key events. Weather and Forecasting, 36(2):519-538, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0044.1 2021
Ref. 3925
Zhu, P., A. Hazelton, Z. Zhang, F. Marks, and V. Tallapragada. The role of eyewall turbulent transport in the pathway to intensification of tropical cyclones. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 126(17):e2021JD034983, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034983 2021
Ref. 4013
Dong, J., B. Liu, Z. Zhang, W. Wang, A. Mehra, A.T. Hazelton, H.R. Winterbottom, L. Zhu, K. Wu, C. Zhang, V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. Marks. The evaluation of real-time Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) Stand-Alone Regional (SAR) model performance in 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. Atmosphere, 11(6):617, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11060617 2020
Ref. 3809
Gopalakrishnan, S., D. Koch, S. Upadhayay, M. DeMaria, F. MARKS, E.N. Rappaport, A. Mehra, V. Tallapragada, Y. Jung, G. Alaka, C. Alexander, M. Bender, L. Bernardet, M. Biswas, T. Black, M. Brennan, J. Cangialosi, J. Dong, R. Dunlap, M. Ek, J.L. Franklin, L. Gramer, G. Hallliwell, L. Harris, A. Hazelton, J.S. Hilderbrand, E. Kalina, H.S. Kim, P. Kucera, N. Lett, B. Liu, T. Marchok, P. McCaslin, K. Musgrave, L. Nance, K. Newman, M. Onderlinde, A. Penny, W. Ramstrom, J. Sippel, R. Torn, X. Wang, W. Wang, J. Whitaker, H. Winterbottom, D.A. Zelinsky, F. Zhang, C. Zhang, X. Zhang, Z. Zhang, and L. Zhu. 2019 Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project R&D activities summary: Recent results and operational implementation. HFIP Technical Report, HFIP2020-1, 45 pp., https://doi.org/10.25923/qzd3-m787 2020
Ref. 3876
Harris, L., L. Zhou, S.-J. Lin, J.-H. Chen, X. Chen, K. Gao, M. Morin, S. Rees, Y. Sun, M. Tong, B. Xiang, M. Bender, R. Benson, K.-Y. Cheng, S. Clark, O.D. Elbert, A. Hazelton, J.J. Huff, A. Kaltenbaugh, Z. Liang, T. Marchok, H.H. Shin, and W. Stern. GFDL SHiELD: A unified system for weather-to-seasonal prediction. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(10):e2020MS002223, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002223 2020
Ref. 3879
Hazelton, A.T., X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, W. Ramstrom, F. Marks, and J.A. Zhang. High-resolution ensemble HFV3 forecasts of Hurricane Michael (2018): Rapid intensification in shear. Monthly Weather Review, 148(5):2009-2032, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0275.1 2020
Ref. 3782