The remnants of Gaston
At 1200 UTC, the remnants of Gaston was located near 16.3 N and 45.6 W (Fig. 4) with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt and was moving to the west-northwest at 13 kt, much faster than previously. Convection flared overnight near the center, but an exposed center is now seen on visible imagery. Convection continues to bubble, suggesting the long-term viability of the system, but also that imminent regeneration is unlikely. There is some controversy as to whether the relative lack of convection today is due to dry air or other factors. The track guidance (Fig. 5) shows Gaston continuing to move westward and likely impacting St. Croix in four days. The intensity guidance shows an interesting dichotomy (Fig. 6) with the statistical guidance showing rapid intensification, in some cases to a category 4 storm), whereas the dynamical guidance is bearish, mostly showing little intensification during the period. The GFS, the most bullish of the global models, has started to back off in its intensification of this system.
AL99
The convection associated with AL99 has elongated and weakened considerably overnight. NHC is no longer carrying the system as AL99. With the current motion of the system toward the northwest, this system is unlikely to be a player for operations. We continue to look eastward for following systems.