NOAA reconnaissance continues into Tropical Storm Isaias today after their most recent P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft returns home from its 7-hour mission tasked by the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), which took off at 4:30 AM EDT Saturday, August 1st.
Tropical Storm Isaias’ convection illustrates the storm’s battle with vertical wind shear and dry air apparent via radar and satellite imagery today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects this meteorological configuration to persist over the next day as the storm tracks to the northwest through the Bahamas before recurving toward the north. Isaias will track over the warm Gulf Stream waters as it turns to the north, which NHC predicts will allow for brief re-intensification.
The combined information from onboard tail-Doppler radar, dropsonde, SFMR, and flight level sensors suggests that mid-level vertical wind shear has forced Isaias’ vortex to tilt with height, limiting potential intensification of the hurricane and exposing its core to dry air in the west and south quadrants of the cyclone.
NOAA reconnaissance data have been ingested into operational weather models since missions began on July 31st. NOAA’s P-3 took off today at 5 PM for its second mission of the day, and subsequent missions are planned through the weekend to monitor the evolution of Isaias.
>> Scientist K. Ryan
For the latest information about tropical cyclones and other weather systems, please visit the NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center.
For information on numerical prediction of tropical cyclones, please visit NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center.
To access updates on the Intensity Forecasting EXperiment (IFEX) and other activities via Facebook, Twitter, or RSS feed, check out the NOAA/AOML/HRD page.
To directly access updates on IFEX HFP Operations via our WordPress blog on the web, check the site: https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/category/ifex-hurricane-field-program/
DISCLAIMER: The above discussion is intended to provide a brief summary of recent and future HRD Hurricane Field Program Operations. Any use of this material beyond its original intent is prohibited without permission of the HRD Director, Frank Marks (Frank.Marks@noaa.gov). Media inquiries should be directed to AOML Communications (aoml.communications@noaa.gov), Monica Allen (301-734-1123) or Monica.Allen@noaa.gov.