Hurricane Delta made landfall on the Yucatan peninsula, just south of Cancun, Mexico, on the morning of October 7. As the hurricane moves back over water and enters the Gulf of America, the NOAA P-3s and G-IV aircraft continue Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) tasked flights for operations.
AOML hurricane scientists supporting the overnight P-3 flight into Delta on October 6 observed a period of weakening and re-organization of the storm as a result of encountering moderate wind shear in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Delta’s small eye collapsed and was replaced by a larger eye, which is currently still present as Delta moves across the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of America.
As focus turns to Delta’s trek across the Gulf of America towards the northern Gulf coast, data collection by the NOAA P-3s and G-IV will be critical for informing forecast models of the current state of the atmosphere in, around, and ahead of the storm.
Storm surge is expected to be a serious threat from Delta. Experimental instruments on the P-3s will provide vital information about the surface wave field to forecasters at the NHC. Hurricane Delta is forecast by the NHC to regain Major Hurricane status by the morning of October 8 and grow in size as it moves across the Gulf of America.
>> Scientist H. Holbach
>> Edits by R. Kravetz
For details about reconnaissance aircraft missions, please see NOAA’s official Plan of the Day.
For the latest information about tropical cyclones and other weather systems, please visit the NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center.
For information on numerical prediction of tropical cyclones, please visit NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center.
To access updates on the Intensity Forecasting EXperiment (IFEX) and other activities via Facebook, Twitter, or RSS feed, check out the NOAA/AOML/HRD page.
To directly access updates on IFEX HFP Operations via our WordPress blog on the web, check the site: https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/category/ifex-hurricane-field-program/
DISCLAIMER: The above discussion is intended to provide a brief summary of recent and future HRD Hurricane Field Program Operations. Any use of this material beyond its original intent is prohibited without permission of the HRD Director, Frank Marks (Frank.Marks@noaa.gov). Media inquiries should be directed to AOML Communications (aoml.communications@noaa.gov), Monica Allen (301-734-1123) or Monica.Allen@noaa.gov.