Hurricane Joan approaches Nicaragua
On October 22, 1988, Hurricane Joan made landfall near Bluefields, Nicaragua. A late season storm, Joan had taken an unusual track over the southern Caribbean, across the Netherland Antilles ABC islands and northern Venezuela before undergoing rapid intensification and hitting Nicaragua with 145 mph winds. Heavy rains in addition to the winds along the coast caused around 300 deaths and nearly $2 billion in damage. The Hurricane Research Division carried out one research flight as the storm approached Central America.
The difficulties encountered trying to predict Joan’s intensity prompted HRD’s Mark DeMaria and John Kaplan to develop a statistical intensity-prediction model (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme or SHIPS). This model produced the first-ever skillful intensity forecasts and became operational in the mid-1990s. It remains one of only four intensity-prediction models that guide National Hurricane Center specialists in developing their forecasts.