Wind Decay Model

Principal Investigator:

• John Kaplan (HRD)

Project Members:

• Peter P. Dodge (HRD)
• Jason P. Dunion (HRD/- CIMAS)

• Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS/ORA)
• Jose Salazar (NOAA/NHC)
• Nicholas Carrasco (AER)

FY10-11 Achievements

• Provided revised version of the inland decay model to JHT facilitator for operational implementation.
• Developed software for stratifying decay model errors by radial and azimuthal distance and time after landfall.
• Developed method for overlaying the decay model maximum wind forecast on geography for real-time display purposes.

FY12-13 Milestones 

• Test the decay model in real-time for landfalling cases during the 2011 and 2012 Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricane seasons.
• Evaluate decay model performance for suitable landfalling storms.
• Develop method for evaluating the overland wind forecasts of three-dimensional numerical models.

• DeMaria, M., J. A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2006: On the decay of tropical cyclone winds crossing narrow landmasses., J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim., 45, 491-499.
• Kaplan, J. , and M. DeMaria, 1995: A simple empirical model for predicting the decay of tropical cyclone winds after landfall. J. Appl. Meteor., 34, 2499-2512.
• Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria, 2001: On the decay of tropical cyclone winds after landfall in the New England region. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 280-286.
• Kaplan , J, J. Dunion, and N. Carrasco, 2007: Estimating tropical cyclone wind radii utilizing an empirical inland wind decay model. Joint Hurricane Tesbed Final report.
• Powell, D., P.P. Dodge, and M.L. Black, 1996: Hurricane Andrew's landfall in south Florida. Part I: Standardizing measurements for documentation of surface wind fields. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 304-328.