The Modeling and Prediction theme involves research aimed at developing and improving both numerical and statistical-dynamical models for use in real-time tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasting.

• Develop the next generation TC forecast system that is capable of ingesting global- to vortex-scale observations and accurately representing multi-scale interactions using novel high-resolution movable nesting algorithm
• Advance our understanding of TC processes by using high-resolution numerical modeling of both real and idealized storms
• Perform statistical-dynamical TC rapid intensification, genesis, and post-landfall decay model development and evaluation and implement model updates into operations
• Improve physical parameterizations in HWRF model through use of observations collected by HRD's Hurricane Field Program
• Transition promising developments at HRD into operational HWRF modeling system at NCEP’s EMC

• Advanced prediction and modeling
• CIMAS Contributions to OAR Disaster Recovery Act Projects
• Development of Multiple Moving Nests Within a Basin-Wide HWRF Modeling
• Environmental and inner-core vertical shear TC impacts
• Inner-core structure of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones
• Observing System Experiments with aircraft data
• Real-time Doppler winds
• Saharan Air Layer
• Services to Support the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
• SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index