To develop, produce and verify seasonal hurricane forecasts
for the Atlantic basin.
NOAA's seasonal hurricane forecasts take the form of the probabilities of an
active/near normal/quiet seasons occuring along with ranges of likely activity
along with range of activity. Seasons are classified by a simple combination
of their intensity and duration - called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). The
forecasts are based upon diagnostic and predictive tools (analog years and
regression techniques) with a subjective blend of the actual forecasters own
interpretation and insight. Specific climate features identified for
influencing seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic are the El Niño-
Southern Oscillation, the global mode (a multidecadal signal in the upper
tropospheric circulation of the tropics and subtropics), and Atlantic sea
surface temperatures. Increases in skill in these forecasts are to be strived
for through better objective aids as well as a more complete understanding of
the seasonal climate influences on Atlantic hurricane activity.
These outlooks are not designed to compete with hurricane outlooks issued by
groups outside NOAA. We gratefully acknowledge the pioneering research of Dr.
William Gray and others, which have significantly increased scientific
understanding of the links between various climate factors (particularly the
El Niño/La Niña cycle) and the atmospheric circulation features that
affect Atlantic hurricane activity. We also acknowledge the leading role that
Dr. Gray and colleagues at the Colorado State University have played in
developing and providing seasonal forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane
activity.
Landsea, C.W., G.D.
Bell, W.M. Gray, and S.B. Goldenberg, 1998: The extremely active 1995 Atlantic
hurricane season: Environmental conditions and verification of seasonal
forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 126, 1174-1193.
Bove, M. C., J. B.
Elsner, C. W. Landsea,, X. Niu and J. J. O'Brien, 1998: Effect of El Nino on
U.S. landfalling hurricanes, revisited. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. ,
79, 2477-2482.
Bell, G. D., M. S. Halpert, C. F. Ropelewski, V. E. Kousky, A. V. Douglas,
R. S. Schnell, and M. E. Gelman, 1999: Climate assessment for 1998. Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 80, S1-S48.
Pielke, Jr., R. A., and
Landsea, C.W., 1999: "La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic Hurricane
Damages in the United States" , Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 80,
pp.2027-2033.
Bell, G. D., M. S. Halpert, R. C. Schnell, R. W. Higgins, J. Lawrimore, V. E.
Kousky, R. Tinker, W. Thiaw, M. Chelliah, and A. Artusa, 2000: Climate
Assessment for 1999. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 81, S1-S50.
Landsea, C. W., 2000:
"El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the seasonal predictability of
tropical cyclones". El Niño and the Southern Oscillation : Multiscale
Variability and Global and Regional Impacts , edited by H. F. Diaz and
V. Markgraf. pp.149-181.
Lawrimore, J. H., M. S. Halpert, G. D. Bell, M. J. Menne, B. Lyon, R. C.
Scnell, K. L. Gleason, D. R. Easterling, W. Thiaw, W. J. Wright, R. R. Heim,
Jr., D. A. Robinson, and L. Alexander, 2001: Climate assessment for 2000.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 82, S1-S55.
Waple, A. M., J. H. Lawrimore, M. S. Halpert, G. D. Bell, W. Higgins, B. Lyon,
M. J. Menne, K. L. Gleason, R. C. Schnell, J. R. Christy, W. Thiaw, W. J.
Wright, M. J. Salinger, L. Alexander, R. S. Stone, and S. J. Camargo, 2002:
Climate assessment for 2001. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83,
S1-S62.
Bell, G. D. 2003: Atlantic Hurricane Season Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. ,
84, S19-S26.
Goldenberg, S.B. and L.J. Shapiro "Physical Mecahnisms for the Association of
El Niño and West African Rainfall with Atlantic Major Hurricane
Activity", Journal of Climate, 1996, 9(6): 1169-1187
Bell, G. D., and M. Chelliah, 2006: Leading tropical modes associated with
interannual and multi-decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane
activity. J. Climate, 19, 590-612.
Bell, G. D., and Co-authors 2004: The 2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A
Climate Perspective. State of the Climate in 2003 . A. M. Waple and
J. H. Lawrimore, Eds. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 85, S1-S68.
Bell, G. D., and Co-authors 2005: The 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A
Climate Perspective. State of the Climate in 2004 . A. M. Waple and
J. H. Lawrimore, Eds. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 86 , S1-S68.
Bell, G. D., and Co-authors 2006: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Climate
Perspective. State of the Climate in 2005 . A. M. Waple and J. H.
Lawrimore, Eds. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc ., 87, S1-S78.
Bell, G. D., and Co-authors 2007: The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Climate
Perspective. State of the Climate in 2006 . A. M. Waple and J. H.
Lawrimore, Eds. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, S1-S78.
Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and W. M. Gray, 2001:
The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications.
Science, 293, 474-479.
