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ATLANTIC HURRICANE
RE-ANALYSIS PROJECT
Picture from "Florida's Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes
Principal Investigators:
Chris Landsea
Bob Hart (FSU)
Andy Solow (WHOI)
Collaborating scientists:
Charles Neumann (SAIC)
Lenworth Woolcock (FIU)
Lyle Hufstetler (UMiami)
David Roth (HPC)
Michael Chenoweth
Cary Mock (USoCarolina)
Donna Thomas (WFOR-TV Miami)
David Glenn (MSU)
Ramon Perez (IM Cuba)
Jose' Colon (NWS San Juan)
Ricardo Prieto (IMTA Mexico)
Jorge Sanchez (IMTA Mexico)
Previous Collaborators:
Noel Charles
Jason Dunion
Steve Feuer
John Gamache
Gilbert Clark (FIU)
Mark Zimmer (FIU)
Paul Hungerford (FIU)
Peter Dodge
Jimmy Franklin (NHC)
Jose' Fernandez-Partagas (UMiami)
Objective:
The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project is an effort
led by the Hurricane Research Division to extend and revise the
OAR's North Atlantic hurricane database (or
HURDAT). Going back to 1851 and revisiting storms in more recent
years, information on tropical cyclones is revised using an enhanced
collection of historical meteorological data in the context of today's
scientific understanding of hurricane and analysis techniques.
Goals:
The primary goal for this project is to provide an extended and
corrected Atlantic hurricane database of individual tropical
cyclone tracks and intensities for both the entire Atlantic basin
as well as U.S. landfalling storms. This fits in well with the
goals of NOAA and HRD to better understand variability of extreme
events, such as tropical storms.
Rationale:
HURDAT contains many systematic and random errors which need to
be corrected. Additionally, as our understanding of tropical
cyclones has developed, analysis techniques have changed over the
years at NHC, leading to biases in the historical database that
have not been addressed. Another difficulty in applying the
hurricane database to studies concerned with landfalling events
is the lack of exact location, time and intensity information at
landfall. Finally, recent efforts into uncovering undocumented
historical hurricanes in the late 1800s and early 1900s led by
Jose Fernandez-Partagas have greatly increased our knowledge of
these past events, which had not been incorporated into the
HURDAT database. Because of these many issues, a re-analysis of
the Atlantic hurricane database is needed.
Method:
Hurricane re-analysis requires the collection of all available
original storm "raw" observations (ships, land stations, buoys,
research and reconnaissance aircraft, radar and satellites),
then addressing them in the context of today's best scientific
understanding and analysis techniques. This allows for adjustment of
the existing track and intensity estimates as well as occassionally
adding a new tropical storm or hurricane to the database that was
not previously recognized as being a tropical cyclone.
Accomplishments:
- A major accomplishment in 2001 was the inclusion of the
Fernandez-Partagas work for the years 1851-1885 into the database.
Documentation,
Data, and
References for this work
can be found by clicking on the word.
- In 2002, Hurricane Andrew was upgraded
to a Category 5 hurricane striking south Florida.
- Revisions for the 1886 to 1910 time period that Fernandez-Partagas
analyzed were completed and approved by the OAR's
Best Track Change Committee in 2003.
Documentation,
Data, and
References for this work
can be found by clicking on the word.
- In 2004 additional changes for the 1851 to 1910 era were officially
approved by the OAR.
Documentation,
Data, and
References for this work
can be found by clicking on the word.
Milestones:
- Plans for 2005 through 2008 are to complete the re-analysis
for the remainder of the 20th Century. Such revisions will be made
sequentially in 5-year increments. To receive email updates
about progress in the Atlantic Hurricane Re-analysis Project,
send an email to Chris
Landsea.
- Complete re-analysis for 1911-1940 by Spring 2005
- Complete re-analysis for 1941-1970 by Spring 2006
- Complete re-analysis for 1971-1999 by Spring 2007
- Investigate trends of resulting database and relationahip
with long-term phenomenon (i.e. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
and global climate change) by Spring 2008
Resources:
The Atlantic Hurricane Re-analysis Project is supported by a NOAA
Climate and Global Change Program grant through 2008.
Key references:
-
Dunion,J.P. , C.W.Landsea, S.H.Houston, and M.D.Powell
(2003) "A re-analysis of the surface winds for Hurricane
Donna of 1960" Mon. Wea. Review, 131, pp.1992-2011
-
Landsea,C.W. C.Anderson, N.Charles, G.Clark, J.Dunion, J.Partagas,
P.Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M.Zimmer (2003) "The Atlantic hurricane
database re-analysis project : Documentation for the 1851-1910
alterations and additions to the HURDAT database" Hurricanes and
Typhoons : Past, Present, and Future R.J.Murnane and K.-B. Liu
Editors, Columbia University Press pp.177-221
-
Landsea,C.W., J.L. Franklin, C.J. McAdie, J.L. Beven II,
J.M. Gross, R.J. Pasch, E.N. Rappaport, J.P. Dunion, and
P.P. Dodge (2004) "A Re-analysis of Hurricane Andrew (1992)
intensity" Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc., 85, 1699-1712
-
Chenoweth, M. and C.W. Landsea (2004) "The San Diego hurricane
of October 2, 1858" Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc., 85, 1689-1697
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Last modified: 12/08/2004
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