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Subject: G12) What is my chance of having a tropical storm or hurricane strike by each month?

Contributed by Chris Landsea (NHC)

The following figures show that for

Named Storms
Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
June June Very Small
July July Very Small
August August August
September September September
October October October
November November Very Small
These figures were created by Todd Kimberlain.

at any particular location what the chance that a tropical storm or hurricane will affect the area sometime during an individual month. We utilized the years 1944 to 1999 in the analysis and counted hits when a storm or hurricane was within about 100 miles (165 km). Many folks are are concerned about the possible impacts that a hurricane could have on their vacation. If so, please check with your hotel, cruise company, etc. to find out how they inform their guests when a hurricane is coming, what actions they plan and what refund policies they have (if any). Keep in mind that a direct hit by a major hurricane is an extremely rare event and if I had a chance - for example - to go on a cruise in the Caribbean Sea during hurricane season, I would go without hesitation.

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