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Advanced Numerical Prediction and Modeling of the Tropical Cyclones

Team Leader: S.G.Gopalakrishnan (AOML/HRD)

Team members:
Robert Rogers (AOML/HRD)
Frank Marks (AOML/HRD)
Robert Atlas (AOML)
John Gamache (AOML/HRD)
Michael Montgomery (Naval Postgraduate School, AOML/HRD)
Sim Aberson (AOML/HRD)
Jason Dunion (AOML/HRD)
Joseph Cione (AOML/HRD)

Collaborators (Points of Contact):
Dr.Robert Gall (Developmental Test Bed Center, NCAR) Boulder, CO
Dr.Steven Koch (Global Systems Division, ESRL/OAR/NOAA) Boulder, CO
Dr.Roland Draxler (Air Resources Laboratory, OAR/NOAA) Washington, DC

International Collaborators (Points of Contact):
Prof.U.C.Mohanty (Indian Institute of Technology) New Delhi, India
Dr.H.R.Hatwar (India Meteorological Department) New Delhi, India
Prof.Maithili Sharan (Indian Institute of Technology) New Delhi, India

Mission Goal:
Dramatic improvement in tropical cyclone track forecasts have occurred through advancements in high quality observations, high speed computers and improvements in dynamical models. Similar advancement now need to be made for tropical cyclone intensity, structure and rainfall prediction. The Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF) is a general purpose, multi-institutional mesoscale modeling system. A version of the WRF model called the HWRF/WRF-NMM modeling system, developed at the National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP) was recently adopted for hurricane forecasting (Gopalakrishnan et al, 2006) by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). At the Hurricane Research Division (HRD/AOML/OAR), in collaboration with the Developmental Test bed Center (DTC), Boulder, CO, Global Systems division (GSD/ESRL/OAR), Boulder, CO, The Air Resources Laboratory (ARL/OAR), Washington, D.C., the university community and Indian Institute of Technology, IIT.Delhi, India and India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India we are developing and further advancing a research version of this modeling system. Our modeling effort includes advancing the WRF system for Ensemble Hurricane Forecasting, advancing our understanding of Ensemble-vs-High Resolution Forecasting of Hurricanes, advancing WRF/WRF-NMM with better analysis techniques (e.g. Four Dimensional Data Assimilation) for improving forecasts and above all, advancing our understanding of the Hurricanes processes using high resolution numerical modeling approach.

Link to Modeling Program update page

Objectives:

  1. Advancing our understanding of the Hurricanes processes using high resolution numerical modeling of the idealized and real cases (FY 2007 onwards.)

  2. Advancement of the WRF-NMM/HWRF system with multiple physics options for ensemble modeling. Example: existing Kain Fritch and Grell-Devenyi ensemble convective schemes within the WRF infrastructure, may be tested and modified for tropical predictions (FY-2007 onwards.)

  3. Advancing WRF/HWRF system with better vortex scale analysis techniques (e.g. FDDA and Nudging) for improving forecasts (FY 2007-2008.)

  4. Advancement of WRF-NMM core with a mass conserved approach for two-way interactive nesting (FY 2007-2008.)

  5. Advancing our understanding of Ensemble-vs-High Resolution Forecasting of Hurricanes (FY 2008-2009.)

  6. Advancement of the WRF system with multiple analysis options. Testing and evaluation of the impacts of the Global Analysis (GSI) and/or the NCAR 3Dvar analysis scheme on the larger scale environment (FY 2008-2009.)

  7. Understanding Dynamical/Thermodynamical interactions of dust with hurricanes (FY 2008-2009.)

  8. Global to Local Scale modeling and prediction of Tropical Cyclones (FY 2009 onwards; Atlas et al. and Gopalakrishnan et al., 2007)

References:

  1. Gopalakrishnan, S.G., N. Surgi, R. Tuleya, and Z. Janjic, 2006 : "NCEP's Two-way-Interactive-Moving-Nest NMM-WRF modeling system for Hurricane Forecasting", 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 24-28 April 2006, Monterey, California.

  2. Atlas, Robert, Lin, S.J., Bo-Wen Shen, Oreste Reale and Kao-San Yeh, 2007 : "Improving Hurricane Prediction through innovative Global Modeling" Extending the Horizons : Advances in Computing, Optimization, and Decision Technologies, (Springer-Verlag) edited by E.K. Baker, Anito Joseph, Anuj Mehrotra, and Michael A. Trick.

  3. Gopalakrishnan, S.G., David P. Bacon, Nash'at N. Ahmad, Zafer Boybeyi, Thomas J. Dunn, Mary S. Hall, Yi Jin, Pius C. S. Lee, Rangaro V. Madala, R.Ananthakrishna Sarma, Mark D. Turner, and Tim Wait, 2002 : "An Operational Multi-Scale Atmospheric Model with Grid Adaptivity for Hurricane Forecasting", Mon. Wea. Rev., 2002, Vol. 130, No. 7, pp. 1830-1847

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    Last modified: 9/17/2007
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