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Report on THORPEX workshop
November 14-15, 2002

by Sim Aberson (HRD)

The THORPEX workshop began with welcomes from Mel Shapiro and Rolf Langland, and introductions by all the participants. Mel Shapiro and Michel Beland then gave the perspectives of the International Science and Core Steering Committees, respectively, and Mel gave an overview of THORPEX so far. This is all background information that is also available at the THORPEX website, so I will not go into these presentations here.

Alan Thorpe then gave the charge to the workshop participants, to come up with a science plan for the program. As has already been decided, THORPEX is to address improvements to numerical weather prediction models to the edge of deterministic predictability, specifically for high-impact events. THORPEX is about global to regional influences on the prediction of high-impact weather. The details of the high-impact weather are beyond the scope of THORPEX.

The remainder of the meeting was filled with discussion of the four sub-programmes by the committee leaders and discussion of the sub-programme plans. I have distributed the sub-programme plans to various people here, and if you are interested, I can send out the most recent iterations of these documents. These discussions were punctuated with discussion of short-term projects during the next year and opportunities for research in the near-term.

  • Sub-programme I

    Observing System Development and Evaluation, was presented by Dave Carlson. My main comment on this sub-programme was that the oceans should not be ignored since they are important for prediction of high-impact weather, especially to the two-week time scale. Andrew Lorenc stated that he believes THORPEX is an atmospheric program and needs to focus on that. No further discussion ensued.

  • Sub-programme II

    Predictability and Dynamical/Physical Processes was presented by Prashant Sardeshmukh and Michael Morgan. Discussions did center on Tropical-extratropical interactions, and the Tropics received some interest from the participants. How this new interest changes the THORPEX plans is still unknown. It is important to note that Michael Morgan works in tropical and tropical cyclone research.

  • Subprogramme III

    Data assimilation and observing strategies, was presented by Florence Rabier, Chris Snyder, Lars-Peter Riishojgaard. This included lengthy discussion concerning data versus information, that THORPEX should not be focussed on gathering more data, but on gathering data that can be assimilated into the models to improve forecasts. This part of the data was called information. Discussion of whether THORPEX should be concerned with continuing gradual improvement to numerical guidance or to eliminating busted forecasts of high-impact events also occurred.

  • Subprogramme IV

    Social Economic Impact Assesssment, was presented by Rebecca Morss and Lenny Smith, neither of whom have much experience in this field. They suggested that forecasts themselves have no value, that the value comes from reaction to the forecasts. They discussed some simple tests, such as the Weather Roulette, that can show whether action should be taken in certain events or not, and that results pertinent to one area may not be pertinent to others. They discussed the recent oil spill off the coast of Spain, how the ship was going through an area which was supposed to experience a storm, but the captain continued through to save money. Insurance and reinsurance companies are beginning to void policies when high-risk activities are pursued instead of potentially more costly alternatives. One goal of this group is to present potential economic benefits to industry groups so that these groups can help in the funding of THORPEX. They discussed the need to entrain those with experience into the field.

  • TOST I: North Pacific THORPEX Observing System Test

    This is really just WSR. I think it is an effort to have a field program with the word THORPEX in it. There may be some satellite work in conjunction with the G-IV work, but that has yet to be determined.

  • TOST II: North Atlantic THORPEX Observing System Test

    The second TOST is much more applicable to our own work. It will take place October and November, 2003 in the North Atlantic basin. It will involve special satellite rapid scanning, an ASAP 15 ship rawinsonde network, AMDAR on 550 commercial aircraft to get flight level data across the ocean, European Union Upper Air and Surface data special obs, European BA146 Research Aircraft, 10-20 new drifting buoys. The Aerosonde and driftsonde may also be available for this program. Sarah Jones and I mentioned that this might be an opportunity for a cross-basin extra-tropical transition experiment in which HRD could use 2004 flight hours, and we should try to get the Canadians involved as well.

  • Earth Simulator and AFES (AGCM for the Earth Simulator) - Wataru Ohfuchi

    The Earth Simulator is now the fastest computer in the world and is available for simulation studies. The computer is 40 Tflops, and has 10 Tbytes of memory. An integration of a T1279L96 simulation, based on the CCSR/NIES Japanese university model. Kurihara is involved in this effort.

  • Multi-scale features of the Baiu (Meiyu) frontal zone simulated using AFES - Enamoto Takeshi

    A simulation of the Baiu front was shown.

  • Breakout sessions and further discussions:
    1. Possible THORPEX workshop for satellite people. Thinking especially of the tropics.
    2. New observations, especially in the tropics, needed to diagnose and reduce model errors. Data assimilation in the tropics is not to the point where extra data may be effective.
    3. Extend extratropical techniques to the tropics past the limits of linearity (diabatic singular vectors).
    4. Get others involved. Industry interested, will go to Congress for money.
    5. There will be a call for THORPEX proposals in next few months.
    6. THORPEX/Vaisala Cooperative Fellowship programme - two to three for 2-3 years, postdocs to work on THORPEX issues. Host lab pays 50%. Contact Walter Debberdt of Vaisala. This will be out around April.
    7. Government spending is an "accounting problem akin to ENRON." -- Dave Rogers, on funding
    8. OSSE versus OSE. OSE better, but nobody besides Aberson has done this to show that targeting really works. OSSE is too difficult because of model and sensor changes, too difficult to properly set up. Can be done in simplified system.
    9. Definitions - TOST is for technology assessment, regional experiment is more ambitious and scientific.
    10. THORPEX must do what will not already happen at National Centres. Research and operations must work together, and this is a very difficult problem. More must be done than have researchers visit operational centres.
    11. Joint Data Assimilation Announcement of Opportunity soon.
    12. THORPEX Science Symposium for 2003.
    13. International Science Plan will be ready in next few weeks.

Sim Aberson
AOML/Hurricane Research Division
Miami, FL
December 13, 2002
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