Xuejin Zhang presented a seminar at the George Mason University Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic & Earth Sciences on the current status of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) and plans for the future. HAFS is the next-generation multi-scale numerical model for tropical cyclone application under the NOAA’s Unified Forecast System, and it is scheduled to become operational during the 2023 hurricane season. It has four components: (1) storm-following, telescopic nests, (2) high-resolution physics configured specifically for tropical cyclone prediction, (3) multi-scale data assimilation and vortex initialization, and (4) atmosphere-ocean-wave coupling. This is all supported by NOAA’s intensive hurricane observational platforms to initialize the model, calibrate the physics, and verify and validate the forecasts. The seminar described the current status HAFS and upcoming operational functions and development priorities for the next 2-3 years.. Results from a three-year retrospective set of forecasts were presented along with new research and forecast products.
The slides from the seminar can be found here. For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov.