This new study follows up on a recently-published study led by Michel Fischer that looked at the relationship between the tilt of tropical cyclone (TC) vortices and intensification. Both studies used a database of airborne tail Doppler radar (TDR) data collected by NOAA’s P-3 aircraft, spanning multiple decades, to examine the wind and rainfall structures of TCs and how they relate to intensity change.
The new study presents general differences between TCs that are maintaining about the same intensity and those that are intensifying to learn how and why intensification occurs in some systems and not others. The differences include having more convection in the part of the TC that is on the opposite side and to the left of the shear (how the wind changes with height in and around the TC) direction, and outward flow near the surface from the TC center toward the eyewall on the side of the TC where the shear points.
The results from these two papers highlight how airborne Doppler radar observations can be used not only for assessing TC structure, but also for assessing the likelihood that the TC will intensify, or even rapidly intensify, with the goal of improving intensity forecasts.
