The world’s largest yearly gathering for the weather, water, and climate community took place earlier this month in Denver, Colorado. Scientists from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory participated in the 103rd annual American Meteorological Society meeting from January 8 – 12 through formal presentations, posters, panel discussions, and more.
The theme of this year’s AMS meeting was “Data: Driving Science, Informing Decisions, Enriching Humanity.” Staff from AOML’s Hurricane Research and Physical Oceanography Divisions joined scientists, educators, students, and other professionals from around the world in exploring the data revolution for decision-making today and in the future.
Varias ponencias presentaron la investigación del AOML sobre observaciones océano-atmósfera sin tripulación, incluyendo Saildrones, planeadores submarinos y pequeños sistemas aéreos sin tripulación.
Observaciones Océano-Atmósfera no tripuladas durante la temporada de huracanes atlántica de 2022
Durante la temporada de huracanes atlánticos de 2022, se utilizaron sistemas no tripulados en un esfuerzo innovador y coordinado para medir toda la zona de transición aire-mar (océano superior, interfaz aire-mar, capa límite atmosférica) dentro y fuera de los ciclones tropicales.
Se examinó la estructura de la turbulencia tanto en la pared ocular como en las regiones del núcleo exterior del huracán Sam (2021) después de que un Saildrone recogiera datos de viento de alta frecuencia sin precedentes en la capa superficial de la tormenta de categoría 4.
El desarrollo y la evolución de la próxima generación del Sistema de Análisis y Previsión de Huracanes (HAFS) de la NOAA también se debatieron en varias presentaciones.
El Sistema de Análisis y Previsión de Huracanes: Del plan a la realidad
El Sistema de Análisis y Predicción de Huracanes (HAFS) es un modelo numérico multiescala y un sistema de asimilación de datos de nueva generación de la NOAA, acoplado océano-atmósfera. Se espera que HAFS proporcione una guía fiable y hábil de la trayectoria e intensidad de los ciclones tropicales (incluyendo la Intensificación Rápida), el tamaño de la tormenta, la génesis, la marejada ciclónica, las precipitaciones y los tornados asociados a los ciclones tropicales.
Desarrollo del Sistema de Análisis y Previsión de Huracanes: Prioridades futuras
Las prioridades de desarrollo en los próximos 2 - 5 años para el Sistema de Análisis y Previsión de Huracanes (HAFS) incluyen: nidos móviles, asimilación de datos multiescala, parametrizaciones físicas para ciclones tropicales, acoplamiento océano-onda-atmósfera, y productos de investigación y previsión.
Con el fin de investigar el rendimiento de la asimilación de datos de HAFS, se desarrolló una capacidad de diagnóstico del espacio de observación en términos de innovaciones cuadráticas medias, innovaciones medias y dispersión del conjunto. Estos diagnósticos del espacio de observación se aplicaron en un conjunto de experimentos para probar la configuración actual de HAFS y mejorar la asimilación de datos de las observaciones del núcleo interno de los ciclones tropicales.
The full list of HRD presentations:
Aberson, S. D., N. Dorst and R. Molleda. Hurricane Andrew, Then and Now.
Aberson, S. D., B. S. Rojas, A. Aksoy, and K. J. Sellwood. Shear profiles and the inner-core structures of tropical cyclones.
Ahern, K., W. Ramstrom and X. Zhang. Case Studies of Hurricane Landfalls in the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Moving-nest Configuration.
Alaka, G. J. Jr, M. C. Ko, J. Shin, A. Hazelton, L. J. Gramer, W. Ramstrom, K. K. Ahern, S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, and F. D. Marks Jr. Developing a Multi-Storm Configuration of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System.
Annane, B., S. M. Leidner, B. McNoldy, R. M. Atlas, and S. Majumdar. Impacts of CyGNSS v3.1 L2 Winds on Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones in Regional OSEs.
Black, P. G., T. Hutchinson, J. Dean, K. Marshland, S. Brennan, and J. P. Dunion. Use of Global Sounding Balloons (GSBs) to Augment Aircraft Inner Core Dropsondes for Improved Tropical Cyclone 3-D Environmental Mapping and Intensity Prediction.
Blackwell, W. J., N. Zorn, R. V. Leslie, C. Velden, T. J. Greenwald, D. C. Herndon, R. Bennartz, M. DeMaria, G. Chirokova, J. P. Dunion, F. D. Marks Jr., R. F. Rogers, K. E. Ryan, B. Annane, G. R. Alvey III, and B. A. Dahl. TROPICS Pathfinder On-orbit Results and Status of the NASA TROPICS Constellation Mission.
Brammer, A., D. Grogan, A. B. Schumacher, and J. P. Dunion. Evaluation of a new Hybrid Global Ensemble Statistical Genesis Index for Tropical Cyclones.
Casey, S. P. F., L. Cucurull, M. J. Mueller, A. Vidal, and P. Paz. Relative Value of Sounding Quality and Quantity for Global Numerical Weather Prediction.
Chen, X., G. H. Bryan, A. Hazelton, F. D. Marks Jr., P. Fitzpatrick, G. J. Alaka Jr., C. Zhang, B. Liu, W. Wang, and Z. Zhang. An Improved PBL Scheme in Hurricane Conditions using Large-Eddy Simulations and Its Impact on Hurricane Forecasts from Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System.
Chirokova, G., G. R. Foltz, J. Kaplan, D. Molenar, I. Ebert-Uphoff, M. DeMaria, A. Brammer, S. N. Stevenson, W. Hogsett, and J. Darlow. Improving NHC’s Operational Intensity Guidance Suite and Situational Awareness with Better Metrics of Ocean-TC interaction.
Cucurull, L., Ongoing Efforts under the Quantitative Observing System Assessment Program (QOSAP).
Cucurull, L., Recent Impact of COSMIC-2 on Global Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA.
Dahl, B. A., G. R. Alvey III, J. P. Dunion, J. Zawislak, R. F. Rogers, and W. J. Blackwell. Assimilation of TROPICS Pathfinder Radiance Observations from Ida (2021) in HAFS.
DesRosiers, A. J., M. M. Bell, P. J. Klotzbach, M. S. Fischer, and P. Reasor. Observed Relationships between Tropical Cyclone Vortex Height, Intensity, and Intensification Rate.
Foltz, G, C. Zhang, A. M. Chiodi, C. Edwards, C. Meinig, D. Zhang, E. Cockelet, E. F. Burger, F. Bringas, G. Goni, H. Hristova, H.-S. Kim, J. Trinanes, J. Morell, J. A. Zhang, K. E. Bailey, K. O’Brien, N.-H. Chi, N. Lawrence-Slavas, S. Mori, C. Bashore, J. J. Cione, and L. B. Looney, Uncrewed Ocean-Atmosphere Observations during the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Gopalakrishnan, S.., A. Mehra, A. J. Poyer, V. S. Tallapragada, and F. D. Marks Jr. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: From Plan to Reality!
Gramer, L. J. J., M. Aristizabal, H. S. Kim, and J. D. Steffen. Modeling Ocean Mechanisms That Improve Hurricane Forecasts.
Grell, E., K. M. Newman, A. Hazelton, W. Li, M. Zhang, and B. Nelson. Toward Unified Physics in the Simulation of Tropical Cyclones Using the UFS.
Hazelton, A. T., G. J. Alaka Jr., L. J. Gramer, W. Ramstrom, X. Chen, M. C. Ko, S. D. Ditchek, K. K. Ahern, G. R. Alvey III, S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, F. D. Marks Jr., B. Liu, Z. Zhang, W. Wang, J. Shin, A. Mehra, and V. S. Tallapragada. Real-Time and Retrospective Evaluation of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS-S Version).
Hogsett, W., S. N. Stevenson, S. M. Camposano, J. A. Sippel, and A. Brammer. Accelerating Operational Science and Technology Innovations in the Hurricane and Ocean Testbed (HOT).
Johnston, B., R., and L. Cucurull. Impacts of Assimilating COSMIC-2 GNSS-RO Bending Angle Observations on HWRF Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Ko, M.-C., J. P. Dunion and G. J. Alaka Jr. The Development of a Tropical Cyclogenesis Index with a Consensus Machine Learning Model using the HAFS Dataset.
Lavin, P. D., D. A. Byrne, D. S. Trossman, and L. J. Gramer. Case Studies Demonstrating the Potential Benefits of the NOAA Next-Generation Enterprise Ocean Heat Content Algorithm for Tropical Cyclone Intensification Forecasting in the Gulf of America.
Libardini, A., S. J. Fletcher, L. Cucurull, and M. Zupanski. Evaluating the Impact of AEOLUS Winds and Mesoscale Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts.
Marks, F. D. Future direction for hurricane research.
Mehra, A., V. S. Tallapragada, J. Meixner, L. Stefanova, C. Stan, Z. Zhang, B. Liu, and X. Zhang. Development of UFS-based Coupled Global and Regional Operational Forecast Systems.
Mueller, M. J., T. Hutchinson, J. Creus-Costa, L. Cucurull, and V. S. Tallapragada. Assimilation of WindBorne Systems Long-Duration Smart Weather Balloon Observations in NCEP’s Global Data Assimilation System.
Murray, E., L. Bucci, J. P. Dunion, Z. Wang, J. Zawislak, and J. A. Zhang. The Convective Nature of Clouds in the Eyes of Tropical Cyclones Observed by Airborne Compact Raman Lidar.
Nelson, K. J., F. Xie, J. Zawislak, and C. O. Ao. Thermodynamic Structure of the Tropical Cyclone Middle Troposphere as seen by GNSS Radio Occultation Observations.
Nowottnick, E. P., J. Zawislak, A. R. Nehri, H. Maring, A. J. Piña, W. McCarty, J. S. Reid, S. H. Chen, A. K. Rowe, N. Sakaeda, C. E. Robinson, S. S. Chen, E. J. Zipser, Z. Pu, R. A. Ferrare, S. Hristova-Veleva, L. Ziemba, K. L. Thornhill, K. Bedka, M. Kavaya, S. Tanelli, S. T. Brown, P. G. Veals, B. Lambrigsten, B. D. Rodenkirch, and S. N. Wu. The NASA Convective Processes Experiment – Cabo Verde (CPEX-CV): Mission Overview and Saharan Dust Measurements Obtained in the East Atlantic in September 2022.
Poyer, A. J., Y. Jung, F. D. Marks Jr., S. Gopalakrishnan, V. S. Tallapragada, A. Mehra, and M. J. Brennan. Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP): Transition to Operational Improvement of Tropical Cyclone Forecasting.
Ramstrom, W. D., X. Zhang, K. K. Ahern, G. J. Alaka Jr., and S. Gopalakrishnan. Moving Nest Implementation for the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).
Rogers, R. F., and M. S. Fischer. Structural Characteristics Associated with the Alignment and Intensification of Weak Tropical Cyclones.
Rojas, B. S., S. D. Aberson and A. C. Didlake Jr. A Structural Analysis of Hurricane Dorian (2019) During Rapid Intensification.
Tiwari, A., K. A. Cherkauer, W. W. Tung, F. D. Marks Jr., and D. Niyogi. Variability in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Estimates from Gridded Data Products and Its Implication on Hydrological Analysis.
Wang, W., J. Shin, B. Thomas, L. Zhu, X. Li, B. Liu, Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, V. S. Tallapragada, A. Hazelton, and X. Chen. An Overview of HAFS Physics Parameterizations and Their Performance.
Wang, Z., J. A. Zhang, J. P. Dunion, L. Bucci, J. Zawislak, and E. Murray. Profiling Tropical Cyclone Atmospheric Boundary Layer Structure with an Airborne Raman Lidar.
Wu, D., A. Aksoy, J. A. Sippel, B. A. Dahl, K. J. Sellwood, B. Liu, and Y. Weng. Improvements in the Assimilation of Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Observations in NOAA’s Next-Generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).
Xu, W., X. Zhang, S. D. Ditchek, and K. L. Corbosiero. Diurnal Pulsing in Tropical Cyclone Convection and Its Relationship to TC Intensification.
Zawislak, J., E. P. Nowottnick, A. R. Nehrir, A. J. Piña, W. McCarty, H. Maring, S. H. Chen, S. S. Chen, B. Lambrigtsen, Z. Pu, A. K. Rowe, J. S. Reid, N. Sakaeda, S. Hristova-Veleva, P. G. Veals, E. J. Zipser, K. Bedka, S. Brown, R. A. Ferrare, M. Kavaya, C. E. Robinson, R. Rodriguez Monje, S. Tanelli, K. L. Thornhill, and L. Ziemba. Overview of Measurements Collected during NASA’s Convective Processes Experiment – Cabo Verde (CPEX-CV) in the East Atlantic in September 2022.
Zhang, D., G. R. Foltz, C. Zhang, C. W. Fairall, H. S. Kim, J. A. Zhang, A. Mehra, A. M. Chiodi, M. F. Cronin, E. Thompson, and J. Thomson. Air-Sea Surface Fluxes in Tropical Cyclones Measured By Uncrewed Surface Vehicle Saildrones.
Zhang, J. A., G. Foltz, D. Zhang, C. Zhang, A. M. Chiodi, J. J. Cione, F. D. Marks Jr., G. Goni, and H. S. Kim. Saildrone Observations of Turbulence Structure in the Hurricane Surface.
Zhang, X., Z. Zhang, A. Mehra, V. S. Tallapragada, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. D. Marks Jr. Developing the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Future Priorities.
Zhang, Z., X. Zhang, B. Liu, A. Mehra, V. S. Tallapragada, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. D. Marks Jr.. Advancing NOAA’s Hurricane Modeling Systems: Operational Implementation of UFS-Based HAFS for 2023 and Beyond.