Improved Track Forecasts

• Track forecast improvements of order 20% are scientifically justified through use of dropsonde data collected by the jet.
• Reduction in track errors in numerical models using dropsonde data vary from 5% to more than 30%.
• Dropsondes from the jet should reduce the average warning area by at least 10% (34 miles), saving the public more than $45M in 5 years.
• Full jet cost ($46.6M) could be recovered in a single event, if a major metropolitan area (i.e., New York City, Houston/ Galveston, Miami, or New Orleans) were excluded from a warning area.

For information about improved track forecasts surgi@nhc.noaa.gov or franklin@aoml.noaa.gov

Updated Tue, Nov 14, 1995