The Modeling and Prediction theme involves research aimed at developing and improving both numerical and statistical-dynamical models for use in real-time tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasting.
Numerical modeling and model development, TC forecasts, land-air-sea interaction, numerical weather prediction, parallel computing
Develop the next generation TC forecast system that is capable of ingesting global- to vortex-scale observations and accurately representing multi-scale interactions using novel high-resolution movable nesting algorithm
Advance our understanding of TC processes by using high-resolution numerical modeling of both real and idealized storms
Perform statistical-dynamical TC rapid intensification, genesis, and post-landfall decay model development and evaluation and implement model updates into operations
Improve physical parameterizations in HWRF model through use of observations collected by HRD's Hurricane Field Program
Transition promising developments at HRD into operational HWRF modeling system at NCEP’s EMC