Subject : C4) Has there ever been an attempt or experiment to reduce the strength of a hurricane ?
Contributed by Chris Landsea (NHC)
The U.S. Government once supported research into methods of hurricane modification, known as Project STORMFURY. For a couple decades NOAA and its predecessor tried to weaken hurricanes by dropping silver iodide - a substance that serves as a effective ice nuclei - into the rainbands of the storms. During the STORMFURY years scientists seeded clouds in Hurricanes Esther (1961), Beulah (1963), Debbie (1969), and Ginger (1971). The experiments took place over the open Atlantic far from land. The STORMFURY seeding targeted convective clouds just outside the hurricane's eyewall in an attempt to form a new ring of clouds that, it was hoped, would compete with the natural circulation of the storm and weaken it. The idea was that the silver iodide would enhance the thunderstorms of a rainband by causing the supercooled water to freeze, thus liberating the latent heat of fusion and helping a rainband to grow at the expense of the eyewall. With a weakened convergence to the eyewall, the strong inner core winds would also weaken quite a bit. For cloud seeding to be successful, the clouds must contain sufficient supercooled water (water that has remained liquid at temperatures below the freezing point, 0°C/32°F). Neat idea, but it, in the end, had a fatal flaw. Observations made in the 1980s showed that most hurricanes don't have enough supercooled water for STORMFURY seeding to work - the buoyancy in hurricane convection is fairly small and the updrafts correspondingly small compared to the type one would observe in mid-latitude continental super or multicells.
In addition, it was found that unseeded hurricanes form natural outer eyewalls just as the STORMFURY scientists expected seeded ones to do. This phenomenon makes it almost impossible to separate the effect (if any) of seeding from natural changes. The few times that they did seed and saw a reduction in intensity was undoubtedly due to what is now called "concentric eyewall cycles". Thus nature accomplishes what NOAA had hoped to do artificially. No wonder that the first few experiments were thought to be successes. Because the results of seeding experiments were so inconclusive, STORMFURY was discontinued. A special committee of the National Academy of Sciences concluded that a more complete understanding of the physical processes taking place in hurricanes was needed before any additional modification experiments. The primary focus of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division today is better physical understanding of hurricanes and improvement of forecasts. To learn about the STORMFURY project as it was called, read Willoughby et al. (1985).
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