Printer Friendly Version
Back to Intensity Change projects | Back to Main Projects Page

Operational Intensity Forecast Improvement Team

Team leader: John Kaplan (HRD)

Team members:

Sim Aberson (HRD)
Joe Cione (HRD)
Jason Dunion (HRD)
Joe Griffin (HRD)
Paul Leighton (HRD)
Mark Powell (HRD)


Collaborators: Mark DeMaria (NESDIS)

Team Objective:

The objective of the team is to improve the accuracy and capabilities of operational tropical cyclone (TC) intensity predictions models. In the near term, this will be accomplished by working on improvements to the SHIPS rapid intensity (RI) index that has been recently developed for the Atlantic basin with financial support from the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT). An RI index is also being developed for systems in the Eastern Pacific, since the current version was developed exclusively for the Atlantic basin. The team is also evaluating the utility of adding a new predictor that accounts for TC induced inner-core SST temperature changes to the SHIPS model. The impact that data from G-IV synoptic surveillance flights have on operational intensity forecasts is also being assessed. In the future, the team plans to evaluate how well the Kaplan/DeMaria inland wind decay model simulated the decrease in wind speeds that occurred after Hurricane Isabel (2003) made landfall. The team will also explore the possibility of modifying the SHIPS model to better account for the impacts of the Saharan-Air Layer which recent research has shown can have a significant impact on TC intensity. Lastly, the team will explore the feasibility of employing the results of their current/future research to develop new forecast tools and to improve/validate current (e.g., GFDL) and future (e.g.,WRF) generation operational TC intensity prediction models.

Accomplishments (FY03):

  • Presented a verification of the RI index performance during the 2002 hurricane season at the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC)
  • Revised the standard (5 predictor) version of the Atlantic RI index for use during the 2003 hurricane season
  • Developed a GOES (7 predictor) version of the Atlantic RI index that includes the 5 standard predictors as well as 2 additional predictors derived from GOES IR imagery
  • Ran both the 5 and 7 predictor versions of the Atlantic RI index in real time during the 2003 hurricane season and provided output to forecasters at the OAR
  • Submitted a manuscript on RI that was accepted by Wea. Forecasting
  • Provided the code that is used to derive the current versions of the Atlantic RI index to the OAR
  • Submitted a proposal to develop an RI index for the Eastern Pacific basin that is being funded by the JHT
  • Assessed the impact that data collected during the 2002 synoptic surveillance flights had on operational intensity forecasts

Milestones (FY04):

  • Develop an RI index for the Eastern Pacific basin and test its performance during the 2004 Hurricane season
  • Install an updated Atlantic SHIPS RI index for use during the 2004 hurricane season
  • Continue to develop and test equations to predict inner-core SST changes for use in SHIPS
  • Test the impact of the assimilation of GPS dropsonde humidity data on operational analyses/forecasts
  • Evaluate impact of synoptic surveillance missions on 2003 operational intensity forecasts
  • Evaluate how well the Kaplan/DeMaria inland wind decay simulated the decrease in wind speed that occurred after Hurricane Isabelle (2003) made landfall

Publications:

Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria, 2003: "Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin." Wea. and Forecasting, 18, 1093-1108

Kaplan, J. and M. DeMaria, 2001: On the decay of tropical cyclone winds after landfall in the New England area. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 280-286

DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan , 1999: An Updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins. Wea. and Forecasting,9, 326-337.

Kaplan, J. and M. DeMaria, 1995: A simple empirical model for predicting the decay of tropical cyclone winds after landfall J. Appl. Meteor ,34, 2499-2512.

Back to Intensity Change projects | Back to Main Projects Page

Last modified: 2/07/2003
Stay Connected