Back to Hurricane Intensity Change projects
|
Back to Main Projects Page
Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Prediction group
Principal Investigator:
Joe Cione
Collaborating PIs:
Eric Uhlhorn
John Kaplan
Sim Aberson
Mike Black
Bill Barry
Steve Feuer
Mark Powell
Nick Shay
Motivation
Goals/Objectives:
- To develop an improved understanding of how TC-induced surface
forcing impacts oceanic and atmospheric boundary layer structure
directly beneath the storm.
- To test the short-term predictability (0-24h) of the TC-inner
core near-surface thermodynamic environment.
- To investigate the impact changes in inner-core surface fluxes
have on TC intensity change.
Accomplishments/Milestones:
- The Group is an outgrowth of results from both Cione and
Uhlhorn (2003) and Cione et al (2000).
The former documented
inner-core SST change using data from 23 TCs between 1975-2002
while the latter documented near-surface atmospheric
thermodynamic conditions for 21 hurricanes. Cione and Uhlhorn
(2003) also demonstrated a clear linkage between inner core SST
change and subsequent TC intensity change.
- Preliminary work conducted by Uhlhorn and Cione designed to
predict inner-core SST change using a TKE-closure ocean model has
been encouraging. Additional research in this area is anticipated.
- Successful development and implementation (Lili 2002) of the
HRD field program "Track-Dependant Inner core SST Change (T-DISC)
field experiment.
- Development of the TC Inner-Core Prediction group (formerly
known as T-DISC).
Planned Research (2003):
- Further group development. Due to the fact that team is newly
formed, roles and contributions from some of the group
collaborators (and yet to be established outside collaborators)
will be better defined as the year progresses.
- Specifically, Co-Collaborators Cione, Kaplan and DeMaria
(NESDIS) will attempt to come up new (e.g. SST change) predictors
for future use in the SHIPS forecast model. The clear linkage
between SST change and intensity change shown in Cione and
Uhlhorn (2003) is the motivating factor. This effort will be a
formal proposal submitted to the JHT in 2003 (for funding between
6/2003 - 5/2005). The approximate 2 year total funding request
will be 230K.
- Continued development and refinement of the Uhlhorn and Cione
modeling work designed to predict inner-core SST change given the
storm's initial conditions and the (AXBT-derived) upper ocean
temperature structure. Regression results from Cione and Uhlhorn
(2003) as well as data from the Lili 2002 "verification data set"
will be utilized for this effort.
- Begin preliminary analysis of the Lili Dataset. This will
give rise to spin-off topics yet to be determined by the group as
well as other outside collaborators not yet identified. Some
possible areas of consideration include 'data verification' for
coupled modeling efforts, a G4-based 'surrounding environment
study', surface energy budget analytical study (Cione and Uhlhorn).
References:
CIONE, J.J. and E. Uhlhorn 2003: Sea surface temperature
variability in hurricanes: Implications with respect to intensity
change. In Press. Mon. Wea. Rev.
CIONE, J.J., P. J. Black and S. Houston 2000: Surface
observations in the hurricane environment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128:
1550-1561.
Back to Hurricane Intesity Change projects
|
Back to Main Projects Page
Last modified: 1/29/2003
|