HAFS - NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

The Future of Hurricane Forecasting: Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

AOML Communications — Tue, 11 Jul 2023 21:22:15 +0000

AOML’s Hurricane Modeling Group was founded in 2007 to advance hurricane forecast models through development and targeted research. From inception, the team has worked to improve NOAA’s hurricane modeling systems; first with the legacy Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (HWRF) model, and now with its transition to the next generation model, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS).

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NOAA Deploys Drones in the Ocean and Atmosphere to Advance Hurricane Forecasting

AOML Communications — Wed, 28 Jun 2023 21:09:49 +0000

NOAA and partners are improving hurricane forecasting by harnessing the power of new technologies and working to coordinate these technologies to predict hurricane track, intensity, and rapid intensification.

The post NOAA Deploys Drones in the Ocean and Atmosphere to Advance Hurricane Forecasting appeared first on NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

Five ways NOAA’s research improves hurricane forecasts

AOML Communications — Tue, 23 May 2023 15:46:52 +0000

Researchers at NOAA seek new techniques to advance hurricane forecasts to better protect life and property. In preparation for the upcoming 2023 hurricane season, which begins June 1, scientists are accelerating the use of small uncrewed aircraft technologies and the collocation of observational ocean assets, among other advancements. Here are five ways that NOAA researchers are improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts:

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How do weak, misaligned tropical cyclones evolve towards alignment? A multi-case study using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System

AOML Communications — Tue, 29 Nov 2022 21:36:18 +0000

The ability to predict whether and when a tropical cyclone will become vertically aligned is critical for intensity change forecasts, as storms can intensify quickly after achieving an aligned structure. A recent study from researchers at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies shows how weak, disorganized tropical cyclones containing different center locations with height, called misalignment, can develop a vertically aligned structure. This study works to improve forecasts of when this alignment might occur by identifying key times of the day and other tropical cyclone characteristics when alignment is likely.

The post How do weak, misaligned tropical cyclones evolve towards alignment? A multi-case study using the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System appeared first on NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

Analyzing Hurricane Dorian Track Forecast Uncertainties

AOML Communications — Wed, 05 Oct 2022 19:32:48 +0000

A new study from scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute of Marine & Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) investigates Hurricane Dorian’s track forecast uncertainties.

The post Analyzing Hurricane Dorian Track Forecast Uncertainties appeared first on NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Program

AOML Communications — Fri, 21 Jun 2019 19:16:48 +0000

The post Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Program appeared first on NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.