hurricane forecasting - NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

New study directly quantifies air-sea momentum exchange in hurricane force winds for the first time

AOML Communications — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 16:22:09 +0000

In recent years, uncrewed surface vehicles (USV) have become vital tools used to collect observations to improve hurricane forecasts. To fully understand how storms intensify, scientists need data at the air-sea interface where energy is transferred from the ocean to tropical cyclones. This data is most effectively collected by USVs because of their unique ability to operate in dangerous environments and extreme conditions. In a new study, scientists are able to directly quantify the air-sea momentum exchange (termed ‘wind stress’) and related frictional drag effect that acts to slow a hurricane’s rotating winds. These direct measurements of this process are the first to be collected over the ocean in hurricane-force winds.

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New drone data improves hurricane intensity forecasts

AOML Communications — Tue, 19 May 2026 13:38:13 +0000

For the first time, data from a small uncrewed aircraft system (sUAS) – Black Swift Technologies’ S0 – will be integrated into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model during the 2026 hurricane season. Scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) determined that incorporating sUAS data […]

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Inside the Storm: Meet the NOAA team behind hurricane research

AOML Communications — Fri, 12 Dec 2025 13:55:54 +0000

Hurricanes are among some of the most destructive natural disasters and pose major risks to coastlines. Given warming oceans, increasing storm intensities, and population growth, advancing hurricane research is vital for tracking storms and predicting their strengths and landfalls. A complex team, from program managers to meteorologists, is essential for successfully predicting, observing, and forecasting […]

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Breaking records in the sky and sea: Innovations in research through the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

AOML Communications — Tue, 02 Dec 2025 18:02:44 +0000

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has officially come to an end. Throughout this record-breaking season, NOAA scientists conducted innovative research on tropical cyclones that will improve forecasting accuracy, enhance understanding of storm behavior, and strengthen preparedness efforts for communities. Their work and dedication contributed to a safer and more resilient future for those facing the impacts of extreme weather events.

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World first: Mini ocean robot collects data in a Category 5 hurricane

AOML Communications — Tue, 30 Sep 2025 16:26:48 +0000

NOAA and Oshen robots bring back key wind and pressure data from Hurricane Humberto A small, wind–powered ocean robot became the first uncrewed surface vehicle to capture and transmit data from inside a Category 5 hurricane on Sunday, September 28, as part of research by NOAA, the United Kingdom-based robotics company, Oshen, and the University […]

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NOAA’s next-generation hurricane model accurately predicted Hurricane Erin

AOML Communications — Fri, 05 Sep 2025 13:45:57 +0000

Hurricane Erin was one of the largest storms recorded in the Atlantic basin, with only around 5% of storms matching or exceeding its size. Both operational and experimental NOAA forecast models for Erin proved incredibly accurate, especially for Erin’s track early in the forecast period. NOAA’s flagship hurricane forecast model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast […]

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Innovations in hurricane research are advancing hurricane prediction

AOML Communications — Mon, 04 Aug 2025 20:21:00 +0000

The Hurricane Research Division (HRD) within NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is a worldwide leader in the advancement of hurricane science and prediction by collecting novel airborne observations, testing new observing technologies, and developing state-of-the-art forecast model systems that optimally ingest these unique datasets. These efforts make hurricane forecasts more accurate, ultimately protecting […]

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AOML scientists prepare for an active 2025 hurricane season

AOML Communications — Mon, 02 Jun 2025 14:05:21 +0000

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and runs through November 30. NOAA predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season in the Atlantic basin this year: NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) will work with partners […]

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Early-career meteorologist, Jason Dunion, is a recipient of the prestigious PECASE award

AOML Communications — Wed, 19 Feb 2025 16:15:12 +0000

Jason Dunion, Ph.D. – a Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) meteorologist affiliated with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) – has been awarded the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), the most prestigious award granted by the U.S. government to exceptional scientists and engineers in the early stages […]

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New NOAA system ushers in next generation of hurricane modeling, forecasting

AOML Communications — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 20:22:31 +0000

Originally published on noaa.gov on January 13th, 2025. Accurate forecasts and early warnings from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) — are vital to safeguarding communities that are in the paths of hurricanes and tropical storms. As we kick off the new year, now is the perfect time to look back […]

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