hurricane forecasts - NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory /tag/hurricane-forecasts/ Preparing the nation for change by studying the ocean, earth & atmosphere Mon, 02 Jun 2025 14:05:24 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.1 /wp-content/uploads/2018/09/NOAA_logo_512x512-150x150.png hurricane forecasts - NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory /tag/hurricane-forecasts/ 32 32 AOML scientists prepare for an active 2025 hurricane season /2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook/ Mon, 02 Jun 2025 14:05:21 +0000 /?p=100643 The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and runs through November 30. NOAA predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season in the Atlantic basin this year: NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) will work with partners […]

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]]> Early-career meteorologist, Jason Dunion, is a recipient of the prestigious PECASE award /early-career-meteorologist-jason-dunion-is-a-recipient-of-the-pecase-award/ Wed, 19 Feb 2025 16:15:12 +0000 /?p=96952 Jason Dunion, Ph.D. – a Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) meteorologist affiliated with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) – has been awarded the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), the most prestigious award granted by the U.S. government to exceptional scientists and engineers in the early stages […]

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]]> Innovation, insight and impact: groundbreaking research through the 2024 hurricane season /innovation-insight-and-impact-groundbreaking-research-through-the-2024-hurricane-season/ Mon, 02 Dec 2024 17:19:54 +0000 /?p=95341 November 30th marks the official end of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Throughout this active season, NOAA scientists set new records in tropical cyclone research that will improve forecasting accuracy, enhance our understanding of storm behavior, and strengthen preparedness efforts for communities in hurricane-prone regions. Their dedication and innovation contribute to a safer and more […]

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]]> Determining uncertainty: a review of hurricane intensity predictability /determining-uncertainty-a-review-of-hurricane-intensity-predictability/ Mon, 07 Oct 2024 17:36:02 +0000 /?p=94501 In recent years, meteorologists have made strides in predicting the trajectory of tropical cyclones as models and forecasts have become more accurate. However, forecasting intensity remains a much larger challenge; small changes in atmospheric conditions can have a large impact on forecasts. To better understand why some forecasts are more accurate, scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic […]

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]]> Breaking records in hurricane data collection /hurricane-helene-breaking-records-in-hurricane-data-collection/ Thu, 26 Sep 2024 20:41:57 +0000 /?p=94307 As Hurricane Helene developed in the Gulf of America, NOAA researchers gathered critical data from the sea and sky to better understand tropical cyclones and support the National Hurricane Center forecasters. This real time data gives meteorologists a clearer picture of the storm environment and structure, reducing forecast uncertainty. Researchers from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & […]

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]]> Record breaking drone flight gathers critical data inside Hurricane Helene /record-breaking-drone-flight-gathers-critical-data-inside-hurricane-ernesto/ Mon, 19 Aug 2024 21:21:20 +0000 /?p=93745 One of the largest challenges in hurricane research is studying the inner dynamics of a storm. The regions within the hurricane that provide the most valuable data are often the most inaccessible and dangerous to reach, creating an opportunity for researchers to utilize emerging technology to enter the storm. Small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS), commonly […]

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]]> NOAA and India team up to create life-saving tropical cyclone forecast model for nation of a billion /noaa-and-india-team-up-to-create-tropical-cyclone-forecast-model/ Wed, 31 Jul 2024 17:43:32 +0000 /?p=93448 A 12-year collaboration between NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has culminated in a renewal of an Implementing Arrangement (IA) on Technical Cooperation in Development of Tropical Cyclone Numerical Weather Prediction System for the Indian Seas, which paves the way for advances in severe weather modeling. […]

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]]> Hurricane Beryl: Looking from sea, sky, and space /hurricane-beryl-looking-from-sea-sky-and-space/ Mon, 15 Jul 2024 13:01:00 +0000 /?p=93314 In early July, the Caribbean experienced 165 mph winds as Category 5 Hurricane Beryl swept through the region. Beryl was unprecedented, becoming the Atlantic’s earliest forming Category 5 tropical cyclone on record. The storm developed and rapidly intensified to maximum wind speed in less than four days - a behavior uncommon this early in the season. Despite the unprecedented intensification, hurricane scientists with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory were prepared.

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]]> Australia to Africa in 36 days: Tropical Cyclone Freddy (2023), the longest-lasting tropical cyclone in history /tropical-cyclone-freddy-longest-lasting-cyclone/ Tue, 02 Jul 2024 20:12:08 +0000 /?p=93141 Tropical Cyclone Freddy breaks records as the longest-lasting cyclone on record. Spanning 36 days, it traveled from the Australia to Africa, nearly 33% of the Earth's circumference.

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]]> Unveiling the innovative advancements in hurricane modeling /innovative-advancements-in-hurricane-modeling/ Tue, 04 Jun 2024 17:39:22 +0000 /?p=77986 With an active hurricane season on the horizon, the need for reliable hurricane forecasting is at the forefront of our minds. Heightened sea surface temperatures, weakened vertical wind shear, and an enhanced West African monsoon are expected to contribute to the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. To predict these developing storms, meteorologists employ models that rely on current observations and mathematical calculations to predict a storm’s behavior and track. These models are complex and utilize inputs from a variety of sources including historic, numeric, oceanic, and atmospheric data to generate their predictions. 

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