hurricane forecasts - NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory /tag/hurricane-forecasts/ Preparing the nation for change by studying the ocean, earth & atmosphere Fri, 12 Dec 2025 14:36:51 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 /wp-content/uploads/2018/09/NOAA_logo_512x512-150x150.png hurricane forecasts - NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory /tag/hurricane-forecasts/ 32 32 Inside the Storm: Meet the NOAA team behind hurricane research /meet-the-noaa-team-behind-hurricane-research/ Fri, 12 Dec 2025 13:55:54 +0000 /?p=103215 Hurricanes are among some of the most destructive natural disasters and pose major risks to coastlines. Given warming oceans, increasing storm intensities, and population growth, advancing hurricane research is vital for tracking storms and predicting their strengths and landfalls. A complex team, from program managers to meteorologists, is essential for successfully predicting, observing, and forecasting […]

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]]> Breaking records in the sky and sea: Innovations in research through the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season /innovations-in-research-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season/ Tue, 02 Dec 2025 18:02:44 +0000 /?p=103064 The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has officially come to an end. Throughout this record-breaking season, NOAA scientists conducted innovative research on tropical cyclones that will improve forecasting accuracy, enhance understanding of storm behavior, and strengthen preparedness efforts for communities. Their work and dedication contributed to a safer and more resilient future for those facing the impacts of extreme weather events.

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]]> NOAA’s next-generation hurricane model accurately predicted Hurricane Erin /noaas-next-generation-hurricane-model-accurately-predicted-hurricane-erin/ Fri, 05 Sep 2025 13:45:57 +0000 /?p=102280 Hurricane Erin was one of the largest storms recorded in the Atlantic basin, with only around 5% of storms matching or exceeding its size. Both operational and experimental NOAA forecast models for Erin proved incredibly accurate, especially for Erin’s track early in the forecast period.  NOAA’s flagship hurricane forecast model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast […]

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]]> AOML scientists prepare for an active 2025 hurricane season /2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook/ Mon, 02 Jun 2025 14:05:21 +0000 /?p=100643 The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and runs through November 30. NOAA predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season in the Atlantic basin this year: NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) will work with partners […]

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]]> Early-career meteorologist, Jason Dunion, is a recipient of the prestigious PECASE award /early-career-meteorologist-jason-dunion-is-a-recipient-of-the-pecase-award/ Wed, 19 Feb 2025 16:15:12 +0000 /?p=96952 Jason Dunion, Ph.D. – a Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) meteorologist affiliated with NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) – has been awarded the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), the most prestigious award granted by the U.S. government to exceptional scientists and engineers in the early stages […]

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]]> Innovation, insight and impact: groundbreaking research through the 2024 hurricane season /innovation-insight-and-impact-groundbreaking-research-through-the-2024-hurricane-season/ Mon, 02 Dec 2024 17:19:54 +0000 /?p=95341 November 30th marks the official end of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Throughout this active season, NOAA scientists set new records in tropical cyclone research that will improve forecasting accuracy, enhance our understanding of storm behavior, and strengthen preparedness efforts for communities in hurricane-prone regions. Their dedication and innovation contribute to a safer and more […]

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]]> Determining uncertainty: a review of hurricane intensity predictability /determining-uncertainty-a-review-of-hurricane-intensity-predictability/ Mon, 07 Oct 2024 17:36:02 +0000 /?p=94501 In recent years, meteorologists have made strides in predicting the trajectory of tropical cyclones as models and forecasts have become more accurate. However, forecasting intensity remains a much larger challenge; small changes in atmospheric conditions can have a large impact on forecasts. To better understand why some forecasts are more accurate, scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic […]

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]]> Breaking records in hurricane data collection /hurricane-helene-breaking-records-in-hurricane-data-collection/ Thu, 26 Sep 2024 20:41:57 +0000 /?p=94307 As Hurricane Helene developed in the Gulf of America, NOAA researchers gathered critical data from the sea and sky to better understand tropical cyclones and support the National Hurricane Center forecasters. This real time data gives meteorologists a clearer picture of the storm environment and structure, reducing forecast uncertainty. Researchers from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & […]

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]]> Record breaking drone flight gathers critical data inside Hurricane Helene /record-breaking-drone-flight-gathers-critical-data-inside-hurricane-ernesto/ Mon, 19 Aug 2024 21:21:20 +0000 /?p=93745 One of the largest challenges in hurricane research is studying the inner dynamics of a storm. The regions within the hurricane that provide the most valuable data are often the most inaccessible and dangerous to reach, creating an opportunity for researchers to utilize emerging technology to enter the storm. Small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS), commonly […]

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]]> NOAA and India team up to create life-saving tropical cyclone forecast model for nation of a billion /noaa-and-india-team-up-to-create-tropical-cyclone-forecast-model/ Wed, 31 Jul 2024 17:43:32 +0000 /?p=93448 A 12-year collaboration between NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has culminated in a renewal of an Implementing Arrangement (IA) on Technical Cooperation in Development of Tropical Cyclone Numerical Weather Prediction System for the Indian Seas, which paves the way for advances in severe weather modeling. […]

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