extreme-weather - NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

Larger than Normal Atlantic Warm Pool Leads to an Increase in US Heat Waves

AOML Communications — Mon, 21 Nov 2022 16:02:44 +0000

Heat extremes are the number one weather-related cause of death in the United States, prompting the climate community to study the driving forces behind these extreme events to improve their prediction. A new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds an increase in summertime heat wave occurrence over the US Great Plains is linked to a larger than normal tropical Atlantic warm pool.

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An Experimental Outlook Model Shows a Useful Skill for Predicting Seasonal US Tornado Activity

Sang-Ki Lee — Wed, 24 Feb 2021 19:58:00 +0000

A new paper published in Monthly Weather Review shows some promise for predicting subseasonal to seasonal tornado activity based on how key atmospheric parameters over the US respond to various climate signals, including El Niño and La Niña activity in the Pacific. In this study, a team of researchers from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Climate Prediction Center presented an experimental seasonal tornado outlook model, named SPOTter (Seasonal Probabilistic Outlook for Tornadoes), and evaluated its prediction skill.

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The Unprecedented Reduction and Quick Recovery of the South Indian Ocean Heat Content and Sea Level in 2014-2018

AOML Communications — Thu, 01 Oct 2020 18:16:50 +0000

In a recent study published in Science Advances, a team of scientists at AOML led by Denis Volkov used observations and idealized model simulations to explore what caused the abrupt reduction and ensuing recovery of the South Indian Ocean heat and sea level in 2014-2018.

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The Atlantic Niño: El Niño’s Little Brother

AOML Communications — Fri, 28 Aug 2020 19:03:59 +0000

Despite their differences, it is still widely thought that Atlantic Niño is analogous to El Niño in many ways. Specifically, the atmosphere-ocean feedback responsible for the onset of Atlantic Niño is believed to be similar to that of El Niño, a process known as Bjerknes feedback. The near-surface trade winds blow steadily from east to west along the equator. When weaker-than-normal trade winds develop in the western Atlantic basin, downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate to the eastern basin, deepening the thermocline and making it harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface.

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AOML Scientists Tackle one of the Most Challenging Problems in U.S. Seasonal Rainfall Prediction

AOML Communications — Mon, 15 Jun 2020 14:50:29 +0000

In a recent article published in Geophysical Research Letters, AOML and CIMAS scientists investigated U.S. rainfall variability, focusing on the late summer to mid-fall (August-October) season. The main goal of the study was to identify potential predictors of U.S. precipitation during August-October and to explore the underlying physical mechanisms.

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Connection between Madden-Julian Oscillation and U.S Tornadoes may Provide Earlier Warning for Storms

Sang-Ki Lee — Mon, 11 May 2020 12:32:48 +0000

Recently, scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) explored the physical causes between U.S. tornado activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In a study recently published in the Journal of Climate (Kim et al., 2020), they showed that a series of key atmosphere-ocean processes are involved in the remote impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation on U.S. tornado activity.

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