El Niño - NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

The Growing Impact of ENSO on U.S. Extreme Drought and Flood Events

AOML Communications — Tue, 25 Mar 2025 13:47:21 +0000

Extreme hydroclimate events, such as droughts, floods, and heavy rainfall, account for a substantial portion of weather-related disasters in the United States, leading to significant socio-economic losses involving agriculture, water resources, and public health, among others. For instance, from 1980 to 2024, droughts were responsible for approximately $368 billion in economic losses for the United […]

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Study reveals acceleration in Pacific upper-ocean circulation over past 30 years, impacting global weather patterns

AOML Communications — Thu, 31 Oct 2024 22:26:16 +0000

An official press release can be seen on the University of Miami Rosenstiel School’s newsroom website. A critical ocean layer for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. A study published October 31, 2024, in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans has revealed significant acceleration in the upper-ocean circulation of the equatorial Pacific over the past 30 years. This […]

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State of the Climate in 2023 Released

AOML Communications — Thu, 22 Aug 2024 15:45:48 +0000

Adapted from NOAA press release on August 22, 2024 Today, August 22, the 2023 State of the Climate report was released by the American Meteorological Society, showing Greenhouse gas concentrations, the global temperature across land and the ocean, global sea level and ocean heat content all reached record highs in 2023. The international annual review […]

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NOAA AOML Scientist Wins Federal Employee of the Year Award from the South Florida Federal Executive Board

AOML Communications — Thu, 20 Jul 2023 23:00:13 +0000

Congratulations to AOML scientist, Dr. Hosmay Lopez, for receiving the 2022 Federal Employee of the Year award for the Scientific category at the 58th annual South Florida Federal Executive Board’s awards program. Hosmay was recognized for his groundbreaking contributions to the understanding of how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events will evolve with global warming, with significant implications for how residents of South Florida will experience climate change over the next several decades.

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NOAA AOML Scientists Project Future Changes in ENSO Variability

AOML Communications — Fri, 08 Apr 2022 14:40:40 +0000

In a new study published in Nature Communications, scientists at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) investigate the projected changes in the seasonal evolution of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the 21st century under the influence of increasing greenhouse gases. The study found that global climate impacts on temperature and precipitation are projected to become more significant and persistent, due to the larger amplitude and extended persistence of El Niño in the second half of the 21st Century (2051-2100).

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An Experimental Outlook Model Shows a Useful Skill for Predicting Seasonal US Tornado Activity

Sang-Ki Lee — Wed, 24 Feb 2021 19:58:00 +0000

A new paper published in Monthly Weather Review shows some promise for predicting subseasonal to seasonal tornado activity based on how key atmospheric parameters over the US respond to various climate signals, including El Niño and La Niña activity in the Pacific. In this study, a team of researchers from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Climate Prediction Center presented an experimental seasonal tornado outlook model, named SPOTter (Seasonal Probabilistic Outlook for Tornadoes), and evaluated its prediction skill.

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AOML and SEFSC Researchers Embark on a New Collaborative Effort to Understand the Impacts of Climate on Economically Important Fish Species

AOML Communications — Fri, 23 Oct 2020 18:24:45 +0000

NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program is funding a new collaborative project between the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) and the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) to understand how a changing climate might be influencing commercially important fish stocks. This project will identify key climate and oceanic processes that affect the biology and chemistry of the ocean of relevance to the coastal open ocean species in the U.S. Gulf of America and South Atlantic Bight, managed by NOAA Fisheries and the regional Fishery Management Councils.

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The Unprecedented Reduction and Quick Recovery of the South Indian Ocean Heat Content and Sea Level in 2014-2018

AOML Communications — Thu, 01 Oct 2020 18:16:50 +0000

In a recent study published in Science Advances, a team of scientists at AOML led by Denis Volkov used observations and idealized model simulations to explore what caused the abrupt reduction and ensuing recovery of the South Indian Ocean heat and sea level in 2014-2018.

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Testing the Trade Wind Charging Mechanism and Its Influence on ENSO Variability

AOML Communications — Mon, 14 Sep 2020 13:52:55 +0000

In a new article published in the Journal of Climate, scientists at AOML and the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Science, with collaborators at Boston University, Texas A&M, and North Carolina State University, document the role of ocean dynamics in linking Pacific atmospheric variability to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event generation. The results of the study could be used as a potential predictor of ENSO events up to a year in advance.

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The Atlantic Niño: El Niño’s Little Brother

AOML Communications — Fri, 28 Aug 2020 19:03:59 +0000

Despite their differences, it is still widely thought that Atlantic Niño is analogous to El Niño in many ways. Specifically, the atmosphere-ocean feedback responsible for the onset of Atlantic Niño is believed to be similar to that of El Niño, a process known as Bjerknes feedback. The near-surface trade winds blow steadily from east to west along the equator. When weaker-than-normal trade winds develop in the western Atlantic basin, downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate to the eastern basin, deepening the thermocline and making it harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface.

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