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Development of Multiple Moving Nests Within a Basin-Wide HWRF Modeling

Principal Investigator:

Project Members:

Collaborating Scientists:

Jun Zhang (UM/CIMAS)

Da-Lin Zhang (University of Maryland)

Qingfu Liu, Samuel Trahan, Zhan Zhang, and Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC)

Funding Information:

Funding Period: 1 January 2012-31 December 2014

Objectives:

In this proposal, we propose a practical solution to target 7-day hurricane forecasts in the Atlantic basin with a high resolution modeling system: the multiple moving nests within a basin-wide hurricane WRF modeling system. Our objective is to develop a forecast system which can follow multiple storms with each storm having multiple nest levels to meet the required high- resolution and domain coverage to resolve the evolution of large-scale systems, the hurricane related mesoscale convective features, and multi-scale interactions.
To achieve the objective, the current HWRF framework will be extended to create multiple moving nests to accommodate multiple storms. We will also develop an algorithm which can identify a unique and stable storm center to move a nest. The algorithm will be resolution independent. It will be applicable to both weak and mature storms. We will build the infrastructure for initializing two storms simultaneously in the first year and we will work closely with EMC and HRD scientists to introduce the research work into the operational framework and eventually transfer the technique into the operational model in the second year.
Apart from the potential to improve track and intensity predictions within the scope of the HWRF system, we anticipate such an approach to be able to provide both extended track and intensity outlook (up to 7 days) and basin-wide tropical cyclone high-resolution ensemble forecasts. In such a system, hurricane-oriented satellite and vortex data assimilation also become promising down to the avenue.

Accomplishments:

An experimental HWRF basin-wide system has been developed in AOML/HRD and UM/CIMAS. The system is currently configured with a static domain spanning both hurricane basins: the Atlantic basin and the East Pacific basin, in which hurricanes can directly impact the US and its territories. The system is capable of following multiple storms and enhancing interested hurricane affected regions by imposing multiple movable nests. It was under intensive testing for the past two years (2011-2012 hurricane seasons) and performed real-time experimental forecasts for 2013 hurricane season under the guidance of HFIP. We have further advanced it toward operational implementation by implementing multiple nest initialization, code speed-up, and forecast automation.

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